9 hrs ago
Silver Outlook: Rate Cuts Could Lift Prices Toward ₹3.25 Lakh
Silver prices are moving up and down sharply.
Experts say they could rise substantially if inflation becomes softer and US interest rates eventually fall.
A weaker US Dollar could also make silver more attractive.
Silver is used in solar panels, electric vehicles and data-centre equipment, which supports demand.
However, high interest rates can make precious metals less appealing.
One expert expects silver to trade in a broad range before making a clearer move.
Another expert says prices have a bullish bias and could rise above $70 per ounce.
Very high prices may lead solar manufacturers to use less silver in each product.
Limited mine supply could provide additional support, but silver prices remain vulnerable to sudden market swings.
Silver is trading near $64-$66 per ounce, with MCX prices around ₹2.35-₹2.38 lakh per kg.
Ventura’s N S Ramaswamy expects a volatile near-term range of roughly $63-$75 per ounce.
Softer inflation, Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker US Dollar could push silver toward $75-$80 per ounce.
Augmont’s Renisha Chainani sees a bullish bias, with a break above resistance potentially taking silver to $70-$71 per ounce.
Industrial demand supports silver, but high prices may encourage solar manufacturers to reduce silver use per unit.
- Who
- Commodity experts N S Ramaswamy of Ventura and Renisha Chainani of Augmont provided the outlook.
- What
- Silver prices could move toward $75-$80 per ounce, equivalent in the article to about ₹3.25 lakh per kg on MCX, if supportive macroeconomic conditions develop.
- Where
- Silver was discussed in international spot markets and on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
- When
- The outlook concerns the near term and medium term; the article reports Wednesday trading and the Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision.
- Why
- Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, softer inflation, a weaker US Dollar, industrial demand and tight mine supply could support prices, while high rates and a stronger Dollar could weigh on them.
Bullish Case
Cautious Case
Macroeconomic outlook
Bullish Case
Softer inflation, eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker US Dollar could push silver toward $75-$80 per ounce.
Cautious Case
Persistently high interest rates, a firm US Dollar and hawkish central-bank policies could keep silver in consolidation ranges.
Industrial demand
Bullish Case
Demand from solar energy, electric vehicles and data-centre infrastructure provides long-term fundamental support.
Cautious Case
Extremely high prices may lead solar photovoltaic manufacturers to practise thrifting, reducing silver use per unit.
Near-term price direction
Bullish Case
Renisha Chainani sees a bullish bias and says a break above resistance could take silver to $70-$71 per ounce.
Cautious Case
N S Ramaswamy expects intense volatility, while Chainani says investors should buy near support and sell into rallies rather than assume a smooth rise.
Key facts
- Current international price
- Spot silver fell 0.6% to $66.70 per ounce in the reported Wednesday session.
- Current MCX price
- MCX silver rose 0.6% to an intraday high of ₹2,41,377 per kg.
- Ramaswamy’s near-term range
- Approximately $63-$75 per ounce, with intense volatility.
- Medium-term upside target
- Approximately $75-$80 per ounce, described in the article as about ₹3.25 lakh per kg on MCX.
- Chainani’s trading range
- Spot silver was reported in a $62.5-$67.5 per ounce range with a bullish bias.
- Potential breakout level
- A break above resistance could take silver toward $70-$71 per ounce, according to Renisha Chainani.
- Key industrial drivers
- Solar energy, electric vehicles, data centres, AI-related infrastructure and electrification.
- Supply constraint
- About 70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, zinc, lead and gold mining.
Quotes
N S Ramaswamy
Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura
“Medium Term price targets could be $75 - $80 an ounce (Rs.325000 per Kg. in MCX) on any indication of softer inflation, Fed rate cuts, stabilizing solar demand and weaker US Dollar.”
livemint.com
“Silver prices are tempered by US Federal Reserve rate expectations and fluctuating US Dollar.”
livemint.com
Sources
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