1 week ago
DR Congo Ebola Outbreak May Be Three Times Larger
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is dealing with a large Ebola outbreak.
Health officials say the official number of cases may be much lower than the real number.
They estimate that there could be more than 10,000 cases, and possibly as many as 15,000.
The official count is 5,105 confirmed cases.
Of those, 2,420 people have died and 1,091 have recovered.
The disease has spread to six provinces.
Some cases may be missed because this type of Ebola can cause milder symptoms.
Officials also say many patients are not known contacts of earlier cases, making the outbreak harder to track.
Africa CDC modelling suggests the outbreak may involve more than 10,000 cases and possibly 15,000.
The official tally lists 5,105 confirmed cases, 2,420 deaths and 1,091 recoveries.
The agency estimates only 30 to 40 percent of cases are currently being detected.
The outbreak has spread across six provinces, including two recent cases in Buta.
Officials say milder symptoms and weak epidemiological links may be causing cases to go undetected.
- Who
- Health authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention are monitoring the outbreak.
- What
- Officials warn that the Ebola outbreak may be up to three times larger than the confirmed tally.
- Where
- The outbreak is occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and has spread to Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uele, Tshopo and Bas-Uele provinces.
- When
- The current outbreak was declared on May 15; updated figures were presented on Thursday.
- Why
- Modelling indicates that many cases are not being detected, partly because Bundibugyo ebolavirus can cause milder or less typical symptoms and many cases lack known epidemiological links.
Modelled Estimate
Confirmed Tally
Scale of the outbreak
Modelled Estimate
Africa CDC officials said modelling indicates the real burden could exceed 10,000 cases and possibly reach 15,000.
Confirmed Tally
The latest officially recorded figures list 5,105 confirmed cases, with officials emphasizing that the larger figures are estimates.
Confidence in the numbers
Modelled Estimate
The modelling suggests only 30 to 40 percent of cases are being detected, based on indicators including weak contact and epidemiological links.
Confirmed Tally
Africa CDC officials cautioned that models have uncertainty and do not represent a definitive case count.
Key facts
- Official confirmed cases
- 5,105
- Official deaths
- 2,420
- Reported recoveries
- 1,091
- Estimated actual cases
- More than 10,000 and possibly as many as 15,000
- Estimated detection rate
- Approximately 30 to 40 percent of cases
- Affected provinces
- Six
- Ebola strain
- Bundibugyo ebolavirus
Quotes
Kyeng Mercy
Africa CDC official reporting outbreak estimates.
“The real burden... should be over 10,000 to 15,000 cases.”
thehansindia.com
“Models also have their caveats in terms of uncertainty.”
thehansindia.com
Yap Boum II
Head of Africa CDC emergency preparedness and response division.
“The number of infections being recorded remains well below the reality.”
thehansindia.com
Sources
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