3 weeks ago
Gold, silver prices jump on MCX ahead of US CPI
Gold and silver are shiny metals that people buy to keep their money safe.
On Wednesday, 12 August, their prices went up by up to one percent in a marketplace called the MCX, where commodities like gold and silver are traded in rupees.
Prices rose because traders around the world felt hopeful and demand for gold and silver was healthy.
There is also worry in the air, though.
The United States and Iran disagree about a narrow waterway called the Strait of Hormuz, where big ships carrying oil travel.
Because of this conflict, oil prices went up to nearly $90 a barrel, and expensive oil can make other prices go up too.
Everyone is also waiting for new inflation numbers from the United States to see if prices are rising fast.
If inflation is high, the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates, and higher rates make gold less attractive because gold does not pay interest.
So the next move in gold and silver prices depends on the new inflation data, which is due today.
Gold and silver prices jumped up to 1% on the MCX on Wednesday, 12 August, supported by a positive global trend and healthy spot demand.
MCX gold October futures rose 0.61% to ₹1,54,700 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures gained 0.89% to ₹2,37,749 per kg.
US gold December futures climbed almost 1% to $4,474 per troy ounce ahead of US inflation data.
Brent crude traded about 1% higher near $90 per barrel as Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US agrees to its conditions.
President Donald Trump said the US is 'in total control' of the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts see ₹1,52,500 as MCX gold support and ₹1,56,000 as the immediate hurdle.
- Who
- Investors in gold and silver futures, analysts including Jateen Trivedi, Jigar Trivedi and Ravi Singh, the US Federal Reserve, US President Donald Trump, and Iran.
- What
- Gold and silver prices jumped up to 1% on the MCX ahead of US Consumer Price Index data, with the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices flagged as a key inflation risk.
- Where
- On the MCX and US gold futures markets; the geopolitical risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz.
- When
- Wednesday, 12 August.
- Why
- Investors awaited US inflation data for clues about the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path, while Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz standoff kept oil price-driven inflation risk elevated.
Cautious View
Positive Momentum View
Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Cautious View
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US agrees to its conditions, keeping oil and geopolitical risks elevated.
Positive Momentum View
President Donald Trump says the US is 'in total control' of the Strait of Hormuz.
Direction of gold prices
Cautious View
With crude oil prices elevated during July, expectations of a firmer US inflation reading have increased, which could keep bullion volatile and the Fed hawkish, with rate hikes weighing on gold.
Positive Momentum View
International gold holding near the $4,400 mark supports a buy-on-dips strategy, with MCX gold expected to appreciate toward ₹1,55,000 and beyond ₹1,58,600 on a sustained breakout.
Key facts
- MCX gold October futures
- ₹1,54,700 per 10 grams (up 0.61%)
- MCX silver September futures
- ₹2,37,749 per kg (up 0.89%)
- US gold December futures
- $4,474 per troy ounce (up almost 1%)
- Brent crude price
- Near $90 per barrel (up about 1%)
- Data awaited
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, 12 August
- MCX gold support
- ₹1,52,500 per 10 grams
- MCX gold resistance
- ₹1,56,000, then ₹1,58,600 per 10 grams
- Key risk factor
- Middle East conflict and possible Strait of Hormuz closure
Quotes
Jateen Trivedi
VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities
“A sustained breakout above this resistance could further strengthen momentum and open the way towards ₹1,58,600. The positive momentum in MCX is also supported by international gold, where prices are holding near the $4,400 mark as uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has kept geopolitical risks and oil prices elevated.”
livemint.com
“With crude oil prices remaining elevated during July, expectations of a relatively firmer inflation reading have increased, which could keep bullion volatile. The immediate trend will depend on the CPI outcome and subsequent movement in the US dollar and yields.”
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