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India's BRICS Gains Mask China's Dominance and Export Weakness
Surjit Bhalla says India’s economy has made real progress.
India now represents a larger share of global income than it did in 2011.
However, he says this progress is still not enough.
The BRICS group also became larger in the world economy.
Most of that increase came from China, not the other members.
When China is removed, the other BRICS countries’ combined share of world income declined.
India’s goods exports grew, but Vietnam’s exports grew much faster.
Bhalla argues that India should focus more on improving its own economic performance rather than assuming BRICS will determine its future.
Economist Surjit Bhalla says India is the second-best performer among BRICS’ five long-standing members, growing 5.2% annually and ranking 26th globally.
India’s share of world income rose from 2.5% in 2011 to 3.5% in 2025, while its per-capita income share increased from 13.4% to 18.7% of the world average.
BRICS’ share of world income increased from 21.9% to 28.9%, but excluding China, the other ten members’ share fell from 11.9% to 11.5%.
China accounted for 72% of BRICS’ income increase and 94% of its goods-export increase between the cited periods.
India’s share of global goods exports rose slightly from 1.71% in 2011 to 1.88% in 2023, while Vietnam’s increased from 0.52% to 1.50%.
- Who
- Economist Surjit Bhalla, formerly the International Monetary Fund’s executive director for India, assessed India and BRICS economic performance.
- What
- Bhalla said India has made progress but remains the second-best performer among BRICS’ five long-standing members, while China dominates the bloc’s income and export gains.
- Where
- The analysis concerns India, the BRICS grouping, and their positions in the world economy.
- When
- The comparison covers income data from 2011 to 2025 and goods-export data from 2011 to 2023; Bhalla’s cited post was dated September 13, 2026.
- Why
- Bhalla argued that China accounts for most of BRICS’ gains and that India’s relatively weak export growth shows the need for stronger domestic economic performance.
India Has Made Real Progress
Progress Remains Insufficient
Economic performance
India Has Made Real Progress
India’s share of world income and per-capita income rose substantially between 2011 and 2025, and Bhalla called this real progress.
Progress Remains Insufficient
Bhalla said India’s gains are not enough, noting that it ranked only 26th globally and that its performance trails what he believes is necessary.
BRICS’ economic rise
India Has Made Real Progress
BRICS increased its share of world income and goods exports during the periods examined.
Progress Remains Insufficient
Bhalla said the rise was overwhelmingly driven by China; excluding China, the other members’ income share fell and their export share weakened.
India’s export strategy
India Has Made Real Progress
India’s goods exports increased from $307 billion to $432 billion between 2011 and 2023.
Progress Remains Insufficient
India’s share of global goods exports rose only slightly, while Vietnam’s share expanded sharply, which Bhalla described as an Indian failure rather than a BRICS failure.
Key facts
- India’s annual growth ranking
- Second among the five long-standing BRICS members and 26th globally, at 5.2% a year.
- India’s world-income share
- Rose from 2.5% in 2011 to 3.5% in 2025.
- BRICS income share
- Rose from 21.9% of world income in 2011 to 28.9% in 2025.
- China’s income contribution
- China accounted for 72% of BRICS’ total income increase during the period.
- BRICS goods exports
- The bloc’s share of world goods exports rose from 23% in 2011 to 25% in 2023.
- India versus Vietnam exports
- India’s goods exports rose from $307 billion to $432 billion, while Vietnam’s rose from $93 billion to $345 billion.
- Trade balance cited
- Bhalla said China runs a $112 billion trade surplus with India.
Quotes
Surjit Bhalla
Economist and former IMF Executive Director for India
“That is the cleanest number in this exercise, and it is the most damning. It is not an oil-price artefact and it is not a China story. It is simply nothing happening.”
businesstoday.in
“India is the second-best performer among the five long-standing members and 26th in the world, at 5.2 per cent a year.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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