2 days ago
SBI Research Defends India’s 7.8% GDP Growth Estimate
SBI Research published a report defending India’s reported 7.8% economic growth.
Some economists have questioned whether India’s growth data is transparent and trustworthy.
SBI Research said economic data is revised from time to time, sometimes upward and sometimes downward.
It said these revisions do not follow a fixed pattern.
The report also said newer information gives a better picture of informal businesses and workers.
According to the report, prices fell faster than the amount of goods produced increased.
This could make people able to buy the same goods at lower prices.
SBI Research also pointed to other economic indicators that it said support growth above 7%.
SBI Research defended India’s 7.8% GDP growth figure against claims that the data lacks transparency and credibility.
The report said 239 revisions occurred across 70 quarters, with 134 upward revisions and 105 downward revisions.
It attributed most revisions to changes in trade, hotels, transport, communications, finance, insurance, real estate and business services.
SBI Research said newer ASUSE and PLFS data provide a more refined measure of informal and unincorporated economic activity.
The report cited high-frequency indicators and sectoral data as evidence that growth has remained above 7% since FY23.
- Who
- SBI Research, along with economists and officials involved in the GDP debate.
- What
- SBI Research defended India’s reported 7.8% GDP growth and responded to concerns about revisions, methodology and data transparency.
- Where
- India.
- When
- The report discussed revisions from FY05 through FY26 Q2 and said growth had remained above 7% since FY23.
- Why
- To address criticism of the GDP estimate and argue that available data and economic indicators support the reported growth rate.
GDP Critics
SBI Research and Supporters
Transparency and trust
GDP Critics
Critics, including Arvind Subramanian, have called for greater transparency and trust in India’s GDP data.
SBI Research and Supporters
SBI Research said sufficient public information exists to construct reasonable proxies consistent with the GDP methodology.
Methodology and revisions
GDP Critics
Skeptics question whether changes in the methodology and base year make the latest growth figures directly comparable with earlier estimates.
SBI Research and Supporters
SBI Research said revisions are not systematically upward or downward and that newer sectoral data better captures informal and unincorporated economic activity.
Evidence for 7.8% growth
GDP Critics
Some critics have argued that underlying growth could be substantially lower, including a claim of 2.6% growth referenced in the debate.
SBI Research and Supporters
SBI Research said high-frequency indicators and other available evidence would be difficult to reconcile with growth substantially below the reported rate.
Key facts
- Reported growth rate
- 7.8% GDP growth
- Revisions examined
- 239 revisions across 70 quarters
- Revision direction
- 134 upward revisions and 105 downward revisions
- Recent base-year revisions
- FY05, FY12 and FY23
- Sectoral concentration
- SBI Research said 95% of the revision was concentrated mainly in trade, hotels, transport, communications, finance, insurance, real estate and business services.
- Growth trend cited
- The report said leading indicators support growth of more than 7% since FY23
- Data sources cited
- Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and Periodic Labour Force Survey information
Quotes
SBI Research
Research division of the State Bank of India
“95% of the revision is largely concentrated in Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication (−₹39 lakh crore), while Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services record a positive revision of ₹13.6 lakh crore. The contrasting movement can therefore be viewed as a significantly better mapping of the composition of economic activity across informal/unincorporated sectors”
businesstoday.in
“We believe that the large decline in nominal and the large increase in real GDP in the new GDP series indicate the enhancement of the purchasing power of the people as overall price levels dropped faster than the physical output of the economy grew. This also means availability of same goods at lesser prices”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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