3 hrs ago
Why Technology Has Not Yet Shortened the Working Week
People once thought machines would do most of the hard work and give everyone much more free time.
In 1930, economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that people might work only 15 hours a week by 2030.
That prediction has not come true, even though computers and artificial intelligence can do many tasks quickly.
One reason is that societies often use higher productivity to produce and consume more instead of working less.
Some people also like work because it gives them money, purpose, friendships, and a routine.
Tests in Iceland showed that people could work fewer hours while keeping their pay and feeling better.
Politicians and companies are now discussing 32-hour workweeks.
The main question is whether future technology will give people more free time or simply create more work and production.
Henry Ford’s factories adopted a five-day, eight-hour workweek in 1926 without cutting salaries.
John Maynard Keynes predicted that technology would eventually reduce the workweek to 15 hours by 2030.
Despite rising productivity and artificial intelligence, work hours have not declined at a comparable pace.
Experiments in Iceland found that shorter hours with unchanged pay improved workers’ work-life balance and well-being.
Proposals for a 32-hour workweek raise the question of whether technology’s gains should create more leisure or consumption.
- Who
- Workers, employers, economists, politicians, and technology companies are involved in the debate; figures mentioned include Henry Ford, John Maynard Keynes, Jack Ma, Bernie Sanders, and Mark Takano.
- What
- The article examines why productivity and artificial intelligence have not produced much shorter workweeks and discusses proposals for four-day or 32-hour schedules.
- Where
- The examples come from the United States, Iceland, and Britain.
- When
- The discussion spans Ford’s 1926 workweek change, Keynes’s 1930 prediction, Iceland’s 2015–2019 experiment, and current proposals for shorter workweeks.
- Why
- Productivity gains can be used for more leisure or more consumption, while work also provides income, identity, purpose, relationships, and structure.
Shorter Workweek Advocates
Work-and-Consumption Perspective
How productivity gains should be used
Shorter Workweek Advocates
Technology and artificial intelligence should convert higher productivity into shorter workweeks, unchanged pay, and more time for people.
Work-and-Consumption Perspective
Higher productivity can instead support greater production, consumption, and business activity, so it does not automatically reduce working hours.
Value of shorter schedules
Shorter Workweek Advocates
Experiments such as Iceland’s suggest that reduced working hours can improve work-life balance and well-being without lowering wages.
Work-and-Consumption Perspective
A shorter workweek is not guaranteed because societies may continue defining economic success through producing, earning, and consuming more.
Meaning of work
Shorter Workweek Advocates
More free time could allow people to enjoy life and benefit from the gains of technological progress.
Work-and-Consumption Perspective
Work provides many people with meaning, purpose, identity, friendship, and order, making a large increase in free time socially and psychologically complicated.
Key facts
- Ford workweek change
- On September 25, 1926, Henry Ford’s factories moved from a six-day to a five-day workweek while retaining eight-hour days and salaries.
- Keynes’s prediction
- John Maynard Keynes predicted a 15-hour workweek by 2030 in his 1930 essay “Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren.”
- Jack Ma’s forecast
- In 2019, Jack Ma predicted that artificial intelligence could eventually enable a three-day, four-hour-per-day workweek.
- Iceland experiment
- An Icelandic experiment from 2015 to 2019 included more than 2,500 people and reduced working hours without reducing wages.
- Iceland results
- The experiment reported improved work-life balance and well-being among participating workers.
- Shorter-week proposal
- Bernie Sanders and Representative Mark Takano introduced a United States bill providing for a 32-hour workweek without reducing income or benefits.
- Research conclusion
- A 2022 paper by Nicholas Crafts concluded that Keynes’s 15-hour workweek prediction will not come true, although lifetime leisure and home production increased in Britain between 1931 and 2011.
Sources
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