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Turkey Fund Outflows Mostly Shifted Into Bank Deposits, BofA Says
Many people and businesses in Turkey took money out of investment funds in September.
BofA estimated that withdrawals from the Tefas fund platform reached about 743 billion liras.
Bank deposits increased by about 950 billion liras during the month, including 884 billion liras from companies.
Most of the corporate deposit increase was in liras, while the rest was in foreign currency.
BofA said the shift did not lead to a major jump in dollarization.
It estimated that residents’ foreign-currency-linked assets rose by $1.7 billion.
The central bank also sold foreign currency, partly to meet local demand for foreign currency and gold.
BofA expects reserve pressures to stay manageable.
BofA Securities estimated September outflows from Turkey’s Tefas electronic fund platform at about 743 billion liras ($15 billion).
Bank deposits rose around 950 billion liras from Sept. 1 to Sept. 29; 884 billion liras of the increase came from corporates.
Corporate deposit growth was 63% in liras and 37% in foreign currency, which BofA said broadly matched recent dollarization trends.
BofA estimated residents’ total FX-linked assets increased by $1.7 billion and said dollarization remained contained in September.
BofA said reserve pressures should remain manageable and expected no meaningful change in the pace of lira depreciation.
- Who
- BofA Securities economist Hande Kucuk; Turkish fund investors and depositors.
- What
- BofA said much of September’s Turkish fund outflows moved into bank deposits, while dollarization remained contained.
- Where
- Turkey.
- When
- September; deposit figures cover Sept. 1–29, and Tefas outflows were reported for the month.
- Why
- The outflows followed a funds crisis and market rout; investors’ shift toward deposits raised concerns about dollarization and currency stability.
Dollarization concerns
BofA’s assessment
Risk from fund withdrawals
Dollarization concerns
The fund crisis and large outflows raised worries that investors would shift into foreign currency, threatening currency stability and the inflation fight.
BofA’s assessment
BofA economist Hande Kucuk said dollarization was contained in September, estimating a $1.7 billion increase in residents’ FX-linked assets.
Where withdrawn money went
Dollarization concerns
Goldman Sachs said data through September suggested roughly half of money-market outflows went into domestic FX and gold deposits.
BofA’s assessment
BofA said a large share of fund outflows moved into bank deposits and that reserve pressures should remain manageable.
Key facts
- Tefas outflows
- About 743 billion liras ($15 billion) in September.
- Bank deposit increase
- Around 950 billion liras from Sept. 1 to Sept. 29.
- Corporate share of deposit growth
- 884 billion liras.
- Corporate deposits by currency
- 63% in liras and 37% in foreign currency.
- Estimated rise in residents’ FX-linked assets
- $1.7 billion.
- Central bank net FX sales
- Estimated at $9.5 billion in the four weeks to Sept. 25; BofA said a third met residents’ foreign-currency and gold demand.
- Fund coverage caveat
- The full mutual fund universe was gauged through Sept. 16; 131 funds ordered into liquidation by the market regulator were excluded afterward.
Quotes
Hande Kucuk
BofA Securities economist who reported on Turkish fund flows
“Outflows were initially concentrated in money market funds before broadening to other funds categories later in the month.”
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Sources
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