3 weeks ago

Gold prices now driven by inflation, monetary policy: report

Gold prices now driven by inflation, monetary policy: report
Gold prices increasingly driven by inflation, monetary policy, not just war: Report · rediff.com

Gold is a shiny metal that many people buy to keep their money safe.

For a long time, people thought gold prices mostly went up when there were wars.

A new report says that is changing.

Now, things like how fast prices are rising, which is called inflation, matter more.

Interest rates and decisions by central banks also matter a lot.

The report comes from a company called Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

It studied the first half of 2026 and found that rising bond yields can push gold prices down.

This can happen even during conflicts between countries.

The report thinks gold might drop a little before going up again.

It expects gold to reach $4,800 per ounce in the overseas markets.

Big factors later will include what the US Federal Reserve says and how much money is available around the world.

Key facts

Report
H1 2026 Precious Metals Report
Publisher
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL)
Primary gold price drivers
Inflation, interest rates and monetary policy
Key headwind
Rising bond yields
Overseas gold target
$4,800 per ounce, then above $5,500 over a 12-15 month horizon
Domestic gold target
Rs 1.68 lakh per 10 grams, then Rs 1.93 lakh per 10 grams
Expected correction
6-8 per cent from current levels
USD/INR assumption
95.5

Quotes

Navneet Damani

Head of Research, Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“"Inflation trajectory, Fed communication, global liquidity conditions, central bank demand and investment flows are expected to remain the key variables for gold and silver during H2 2026."”
rediff.com
“"H1 2026 demonstrated that the relationship between war and gold has become increasingly conditional."”
rediff.com

Sources

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