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UBS Sees More Stock Gains Despite Oil, Rates and Debt
UBS thinks US stocks can keep rising during the next six to 12 months.
It says the global economy is still growing and factories are showing strength.
The firm also expects companies to keep increasing their profits.
Spending on artificial intelligence technology is another important source of support.
Higher interest rates, expensive oil and government debt could still cause trouble.
The conflict involving Iran has pushed oil prices higher and increased inflation worries.
UBS believes these problems may remain manageable if the conflict does not worsen.
It would change its view if inflation, oil disruptions, weaker AI spending or higher bond yields became much more damaging.
UBS recommends staying invested while spreading investments out and limiting concentration risk.
UBS expects the equity rally to continue over the next six to 12 months, supported by solid global growth and strong earnings.
The firm says resilient manufacturing, limited expected rate hikes and expanding corporate profits can help markets withstand higher yields.
UBS views AI infrastructure spending as a major tailwind, forecasting S&P 500 earnings growth of 25% this year and 14% in 2027.
The Iran conflict, oil above $106 and rising inflation concerns remain risks, but UBS expects energy disruption to stay relatively limited.
UBS would become more cautious if inflation accelerates, oil disruption threatens growth, AI spending slows, or long-term yields further undermine debt affordability and confidence.
- Who
- UBS, led in this outlook by Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management; BlackRock also remains optimistic about US stocks.
- What
- UBS says the equity rally could continue, while identifying inflation, oil disruption, AI spending, interest rates and government debt as key risks.
- Where
- US equity markets, with broader references to the global economy, the Eurozone and the Middle East.
- When
- UBS expects the rally to continue over the next six to 12 months; it forecasts S&P 500 earnings growth of 25% this year and 14% in 2027.
- Why
- UBS cites solid economic growth, resilient earnings and AI investment as supports, while oil, inflation, tighter monetary policy and debt create risks.
Reasons to Stay Invested
Risks That Could Break the Rally
Economic growth and interest rates
Reasons to Stay Invested
UBS says solid global growth and resilient manufacturing should help equities tolerate higher yields, and it does not view expected rate hikes as a major concern while growth remains firm.
Risks That Could Break the Rally
A more prolonged tightening cycle could weaken growth and create access-to-capital problems, particularly for parts of the AI ecosystem.
AI investment
Reasons to Stay Invested
UBS says second-quarter results confirmed demand for and returns on AI infrastructure investment, making AI spending a powerful earnings and confidence tailwind.
Risks That Could Break the Rally
A slowdown in AI capital-spending momentum compared with expectations would make UBS more cautious about the market.
Oil, inflation and government debt
Reasons to Stay Invested
UBS expects relatively limited energy disruption and an inflation shock that does not become broad or persistent enough to derail growth.
Risks That Could Break the Rally
Reaccelerating inflation, worsening oil disruption or sharply higher long-term yields could threaten growth, raise concerns about government-debt affordability and undermine liquidity and investor confidence.
Key facts
- UBS outlook
- The equity rally is expected to continue over the next six to 12 months.
- Oil price
- Oil is trading above $106, up nearly 18% in the last month, according to the article.
- Expected Fed action
- UBS expects one more 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike.
- S&P 500 earnings forecast
- UBS forecasts earnings growth of 25% this year and 14% in 2027.
- US nominal GDP growth
- At the end of 2Q26, US nominal GDP was reported as growing 6.6% year over year.
- Manufacturing
- US factory activity has remained in expansion for eight consecutive months, while August Eurozone manufacturing PMI was its strongest in more than four years.
- BlackRock position
- BlackRock, which manages $15.34 trillion in assets, also maintains an optimistic stance on US stocks.
Quotes
Mark Haefele
Chief Investment Officer of Global Wealth Management at UBS
“We believe the equity rally will continue over the next six to 12 months. Of course, rate hikes will not produce more oil or chips, and rising US government debt will complicate the outlook.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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