3 weeks ago
India's forex reserves near record high on stronger capital inflows
India keeps a big piggy bank of foreign money called foreign exchange reserves.
The Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, takes care of it.
The piggy bank has been growing for five weeks in a row.
In one week alone, it grew by $10.5 billion.
Now it holds about $692.9 billion.
That is very close to the biggest amount India ever saved, which was $728.5 billion.
The bank recently did some special things to bring more foreign money in.
People from India living abroad put money into special deposits, and the bank borrowed money from overseas.
Together, these brought in about $40.8 billion since early June.
Some experts think the piggy bank could grow to $730 billion by September, but others say the bank may need to spend some money to protect the rupee, so a new record is not guaranteed.
India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $10.5 billion to $692.9 billion in the week ended July 31.
The stockpile is now near its record high of $728.5 billion set in February.
Reserves have climbed for five straight weeks since the RBI introduced measures in early June.
RBI measures have attracted $40.8 billion through diaspora foreign currency deposits and overseas borrowings.
Analysts project peak reserves of $730 billion in September, but warn RBI dollar sales could prevent a new record.
- Who
- India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), along with economists Gaura Sen Gupta of IDFC First Bank and Sakshi Gupta of HDFC Bank.
- What
- India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $692.9 billion, near a record high, driven by stronger capital inflows.
- Where
- India.
- When
- In the week ended July 31, following five consecutive weeks of gains; the previous record was set in February and a peak is projected for September.
- Why
- Because RBI measures attracted about $40.8 billion through diaspora foreign currency deposits and overseas borrowings since early June.
Record High Expected
Record High Not Guaranteed
Will India's forex reserves set a new record?
Record High Expected
Gaura Sen Gupta of IDFC First Bank sees peak reserves of $730 billion in September, with RBI measures attracting about $90–100 billion in total capital inflows.
Record High Not Guaranteed
Sakshi Gupta of HDFC Bank and other analysts note the RBI has been using reserves to deliver dollars on forward maturities and intervene in the market, making a return to the record high uncertain.
Key facts
- Total reserves
- $692.9 billion (week ended July 31)
- Weekly increase
- $10.5 billion
- Record high
- $728.5 billion, set in February
- Consecutive weekly gains
- 5 weeks
- Inflows since early June
- $40.8 billion
- Projected peak
- $730 billion in September (IDFC First Bank estimate)
- Expected total from RBI measures
- $90 billion to $100 billion
- Sharpest weekly rise since
- End of January
Quotes
Gaura Sen Gupta
Chief economist at IDFC First Bank
“It’s hard to say whether they will go back to the record high because the RBI has also been dipping into its reserves to deliver dollars on forward maturities and to intervene in the market.”
telegraphindia.com
“We could see peak reserves of $730 billion in September, provided there is no significant loss from revaluation of gold or non-dollar reserves.”
telegraphindia.com
Sources
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