4 days ago
Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Reaching $4,900 by End-2026
Gold prices have moved up and down sharply during 2026.
Goldman Sachs thinks gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of the year.
It says central banks are buying more gold to diversify their reserves.
Central-bank purchases rose after some Russian assets were frozen following the invasion of Ukraine.
Goldman estimates central banks may buy about 50 tonnes of gold each month in 2026.
That is much higher than the average monthly amount before 2022.
Gold can also be affected by interest rates.
If investors expect higher US interest rates, gold may fall.
If central banks keep buying and exchange-traded-fund investors return, gold could rise more than Goldman’s forecast.
Goldman Sachs projects gold will reach $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.
The forecast implies nearly 8% upside from current levels around $4,550.
Central-bank purchases, especially reserve diversification, are identified as a key support for gold prices.
Central banks could buy an average of 50 tonnes monthly in 2026, compared with 17 tonnes before 2022.
Higher Federal Reserve rate expectations could pressure gold and cause a sharper correction.
- Who
- Goldman Sachs Research, central banks, and Federal Reserve policymakers are central to the outlook.
- What
- Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, while warning of significant volatility.
- Where
- The outlook covers global gold markets, central-bank reserve holdings, and US monetary policy.
- When
- The forecast concerns the end of 2026; the research was released at least five days before Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole statement.
- Why
- Goldman cites strong central-bank demand and potentially lower US rate expectations, while higher rate expectations remain a downside risk.
Bullish outlook
Downside risks
Central-bank demand
Bullish outlook
Goldman Sachs says continued central-bank buying and reserve diversification are structural positives that could support a multi-year uptrend.
Downside risks
The forecast depends partly on elevated central-bank accumulation continuing; a slowdown in buying could weaken this support.
Interest rates
Bullish outlook
Gold could benefit if inflation trends lower and the Federal Reserve remains on hold in 2026, potentially reducing pressure from interest rates.
Downside risks
A renewed increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes could pressure gold and trigger a sharper-than-usual correction.
Investor demand
Bullish outlook
A recovery in private-investor exchange-traded-fund inflows could push gold well above Goldman Sachs’ $4,900 forecast.
Downside risks
Goldman Sachs also expects greater two-sided volatility, meaning the rally could experience deeper pullbacks.
Key facts
- Goldman Sachs forecast
- $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026
- Current reference price
- About $4,550 per ounce
- 2026 peak
- $5,600 per ounce on January 29, 2026
- 2026 trough
- Below $4,000 by mid-July
- Estimated central-bank buying
- An average of 50 tonnes per month in 2026
- Pre-2022 comparison
- An average of 17 tonnes per month before 2022
- June 2026 purchases
- 100 tonnes per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, up from 66 tonnes in May
Quotes
Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven
Senior commodities analyst and co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs Research
“We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks, consistent with recent survey evidence.”
financialexpress.com
“We expect the Fed-related headwind to abate further, as our economists expect a lower inflation trend to keep the Fed on hold this year.”
financialexpress.com
Goldman Sachs Research
Research division of the international investment bank
“China’s central bank was the largest identifiable buyer in the market in June.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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