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JM Financial Sees 30% Upside in Adani Power Shares
JM Financial visited an Adani Power plant in Raipur and gave the company a positive assessment.
The plant had problems before Adani Power bought it in 2019.
Since then, the plant has generally been available more than 90% of the time.
It has also produced power more consistently.
The company is building two additional large power units at the site.
Much of the construction work is already underway.
The official schedule says Unit 3 should start operating in January 2028.
Site executives believe it could be ready about six months sooner, but that earlier date is not the official schedule.
JM Financial projects about 30% upside for Adani Power, citing its healthy portfolio and execution.
The Raipur plant’s availability has stayed above 90% since Adani Power acquired it in August 2019.
Plant load factor rose from 55% in 2021 to 72% in FY26, after reaching 73% in FY24 and 78% in FY25.
The 2x800 MW Raipur Extension Phase II project is mostly on schedule, with major packages 60-70% complete.
Unit 3 is officially scheduled for January 2028 commissioning, though site executives expect completion six months earlier.
- Who
- JM Financial assessed Adani Power’s Raipur operations and expansion project.
- What
- The brokerage said Adani Power shares could have about 30% upside, citing plant performance and project execution.
- Where
- The projects are located at Adani Power’s Raipur plant in Chhattisgarh.
- When
- The existing units began operating in June 2015 and April 2016; Adani Power acquired the plant in August 2019, and Unit 3 is scheduled for January 2028.
- Why
- JM Financial cited improved plant performance, power purchase agreements, coal and logistics advantages, and progress on the expansion project.
Earlier Commissioning View
Official Commissioning Schedule
Unit 3 completion timing
Earlier Commissioning View
Site executives said they were confident Unit 3 could be commissioned six months ahead of schedule.
Official Commissioning Schedule
The Central Electricity Authority schedule places Unit 3 commissioning in January 2028.
Key facts
- Brokerage view
- JM Financial sees approximately 30% upside in Adani Power shares.
- Existing plant
- The operational facility consists of two 685 MW units.
- Plant availability
- Availability has remained consistently above 90% since the August 2019 acquisition.
- FY26 EBITDA
- The plant generated EBITDA of Rs 2,300 crore in FY26.
- Expansion
- Raipur Extension TPP Phase II consists of two 800 MW ultra-supercritical units.
- Construction progress
- Main plant packages were broadly 60-70% complete; boiler execution was 64% for Unit 3 and 60% for Unit 4.
- Power agreements
- Adani Power has tied up 100% of the expansion project’s power purchase agreements.
Sources
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