3 days ago
Putin Turns to Xi as Russia’s Wartime Clout Crumbles
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are leaders of Russia and China.
They are meeting in Kyrgyzstan while Russia is under pressure from its war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has struck important Russian oil and gas targets.
China, meanwhile, has become stronger in energy markets and more influential in Central Asia.
Russia now depends heavily on China for trade and some supplies.
China buys cheaper Russian oil and sells goods in Russia, where Western competitors have left.
China has not condemned Russia’s invasion, but it says the fighting should calm down and negotiations should begin.
Some Russians think China is not helping enough, while China has rejected Russia’s proposed gas-pipeline pricing.
Analysts say Putin still considers Xi a strategic partner and has little ability to pressure him.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are due to meet Monday in Kyrgyzstan during a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
Russia’s economy and international influence have weakened amid Ukraine’s strikes on its oil-and-gas industry and the prolonged war.
China has gained influence over oil markets, expanded its resilience against the West, and become more important to Russia economically.
Beijing has not condemned Russia’s invasion but publicly calls for de-escalation, dialogue, and a political settlement.
Tensions include China’s refusal to agree to Russia’s proposed gas pipeline terms, despite supplying some dual-use and drone parts.
- Who
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the meeting taking place alongside the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
- What
- The leaders are meeting as Russia’s wartime influence and economic strength have weakened relative to China’s growing leverage.
- Where
- Kyrgyzstan, on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
- When
- Monday; the meeting also comes days after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s reported visit to Moscow.
- Why
- The meeting reflects their shared resistance to U.S. power, Russia’s growing dependence on China, and Beijing’s possible effort to encourage de-escalation and negotiations over Ukraine.
China’s Position
Russia’s Needs and Concerns
Approach to the Ukraine war
China’s Position
China is expected to repeat calls for de-escalation, dialogue, and a political settlement without publicly confronting Moscow.
Russia’s Needs and Concerns
Russia continues its war and has relied on China’s economic relationship and support-related supplies as Western pressure persists.
Level of Chinese support
China’s Position
Beijing has provided trade, cheaper energy access, and some dual-use and drone parts, but has not offered unlimited backing or accepted Moscow’s gas-pipeline pricing.
Russia’s Needs and Concerns
Some Russian officials and analysts argue that China is providing only enough support to keep Russia’s economy and war effort functioning while benefiting from the relationship.
Strategic relationship
China’s Position
China has gained greater influence over Russia and Central Asia while maintaining its own public position against escalation.
Russia’s Needs and Concerns
Despite tensions and its reduced international clout, Russia still treats China as a strategic partner, leaving Putin with limited leverage over Beijing.
Key facts
- Meeting setting
- The Putin-Xi meeting is scheduled during a summit of the 10-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
- Russia’s pressure
- Ukraine carried out a summer of strikes against Russia’s oil-and-gas industry and other economically vulnerable targets.
- China’s gains
- China emerged from the Iran war with greater influence over oil markets and increased resilience against the West.
- Economic dependence
- Russia has become increasingly reliant on Chinese imports and markets.
- China’s Ukraine position
- Beijing has not condemned Russia’s invasion and publicly calls for de-escalation, dialogue, and a political settlement.
- Energy dispute
- China has rejected Moscow’s proposed natural-gas pipeline terms, seeking pricing tied to Russia’s subsidized domestic market.
- Military-related support
- China provides some dual-use and drone parts to Russia, while Iran has supplied Russia with lethal drones.
Quotes
Tatiana Stanovaya
Senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
“Publicly, I would expect Xi to stick to China’s familiar language: warning against escalation and calling for de-escalation, dialogue and a political settlement. That would allow Beijing to signal concern about a wider conflict without directly criticizing or publicly confronting Moscow.”
livemint.com
“There’s very little Putin can do when it comes to China, he still sees Xi as a strategic partner.”
livemint.com
Eva Seiwert
Senior analyst with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin
“If the issue is discussed at all, it would more likely happen behind closed doors.”
livemint.com
Sources
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