2 weeks ago
Dollar Mixed After Flat PPI as Fed Hike Bets Cool
The Federal Reserve is like the person in charge of keeping money in the United States healthy.
One way it does this is by deciding how expensive it is to borrow money.
When borrowing gets more expensive, people buy less, and prices stop going up so fast.
Prices going up is called inflation.
Every month, the government checks what factories charge for the things they make.
In July, those prices stayed the same, which is a sign that inflation is slowing down.
Because of that, many people now think the Fed will not raise borrowing costs in September.
The chance of a hike dropped from 40% to 35%.
In other news, the dollar's value barely changed against other currencies.
Somewhere far away, drones reportedly hit an oil refinery, which made oil prices wobble because the world worries about getting enough fuel.
July producer prices were flat, after a revised 0.1% drop in June, versus the 0.2% rebound economists forecast.
Fed funds futures now show a 35% probability of a September rate hike, down from 40% on Wednesday and 55% a week earlier.
The dollar index edged up 0.02% to 99.96 after briefly falling to 99.80 on the PPI report.
The yen weakened to 159.48 per dollar as investors watch for a Bank of Japan rate hike at next month's policy meeting.
Oil pared losses to under 1% after reports that Yemen's Houthis targeted a Saudi Aramco refinery with drones.
- Who
- The U.S. Federal Reserve and currency traders, with the Bank of Japan, Norges Bank, and Saudi Aramco also in focus.
- What
- The U.S. dollar traded mixed after flat July producer price data cooled expectations for a September Fed rate hike, while a drone attack report on Saudi Aramco renewed oil supply worries.
- Where
- New York, with global market implications including the Strait of Hormuz.
- When
- Thursday, August 13.
- Why
- Flat producer prices and cooler consumer inflation reduced the case for another Fed rate hike in September.
Stay on Hold
Hike in September
Fed's September rate decision
Stay on Hold
Soft PPI and consumer price data help make the case for the Fed staying on hold in September.
Hike in September
Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target and oil prices are climbing on Iran-related supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, so more hikes may be needed.
Outlook for the yen and Bank of Japan
Stay on Hold
Last month's historic joint U.S.-Japan intervention fuels bets that the Bank of Japan will need to hike rates faster and further in September.
Hike in September
The intervention hasn't scared away investors from continuing to fade the yen unless the Bank of Japan delivers a hike and more hawkish guidance in September.
Key facts
- July Producer Price Index
- Unchanged, after a revised 0.1% drop in June
- PPI forecast
- Economists expected a 0.2% rebound
- September Fed hike probability
- 35%, down from 40% on Wednesday and 55% a week earlier
- Dollar index
- 99.96, up 0.02%, after dipping to 99.80
- Euro
- $1.1528, up 0.03%
- Japanese yen
- 159.48 per dollar, down 0.04%
- British pound
- $1.3481, down 0.08%
- Norges Bank rate
- Unchanged at 4.25% in Norway
Quotes
Noel Dixon
Senior macro strategist at State Street
“"My takeaway from that number and yesterday's number is that it helps to make the case for the Fed staying on hold in September."”
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