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Falling Vaccination Rates Could Drive Global Measles Surge in 2026
Measles is a virus that can make people very sick, especially children who are not vaccinated.
The World Health Organization estimates that almost 11 million people may get measles in 2026.
Most cases are expected in Africa and Asia, but outbreaks are also happening in Europe and the Americas.
Vaccines are safe and help prevent measles.
Communities usually need more than 95% of people vaccinated to stop the virus from spreading widely.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many children missed routine vaccinations.
Some poorer countries still have not been able to vaccinate all of those children.
Bangladesh has had especially serious shortages and has reported more than 900 deaths.
In other places, including parts of the Americas, vaccine hesitancy has helped outbreaks grow.
The World Health Organization estimates that nearly 11 million people could contract measles in 2026.
Lower vaccination rates, vaccine shortages, pandemic disruptions and conflict are contributing to outbreaks worldwide.
Bangladesh has reported more measles cases than any other country this year, with more than 900 deaths.
Guatemala has recorded more than 30,000 confirmed cases, while Canada, Mexico and the United States face renewed transmission.
Measles vaccination coverage generally needs to exceed 95% to protect communities from widespread outbreaks.
- Who
- Unvaccinated children and adults are most at risk; affected countries include Bangladesh, Guatemala, Canada, Mexico, the United States and many countries in Africa and Asia.
- What
- Measles cases and outbreaks are increasing as vaccination rates decline and vaccine access remains uneven.
- Where
- Outbreaks are occurring across Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, including Bangladesh and Guatemala.
- When
- The article discusses projected and reported conditions in 2026, following pandemic-related disruptions to vaccination.
- Why
- The article attributes the rise primarily to decreased vaccination rates, vaccine shortages, missed pandemic vaccinations, conflict, displacement and vaccine hesitancy.
Key facts
- Projected 2026 cases
- Nearly 11 million people could contract measles, according to the World Health Organization.
- Community protection threshold
- More than 95% vaccination coverage is generally needed to maintain herd immunity against measles.
- Low- and middle-income coverage
- About 80% of young children have received at least one dose, while about 70% have received two doses.
- Bangladesh deaths
- More than 900 people have reportedly died from measles in Bangladesh this year.
- Bangladesh vaccination campaign
- A mass campaign in early 2026 vaccinated more than 1 million children, but coverage remained below the level needed to prevent widespread epidemics.
- Guatemala cases
- Guatemala has reported more than 30,000 confirmed measles cases in 2026.
- United States cases
- The United States has diagnosed more measles cases in 2026 than in any year since 1991.
Sources
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