0 months ago
Global markets swing on Hormuz deal hopes as crude slips
Many ships carry oil and goods through a narrow strip of water called the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and Iran were fighting, and people worried ships might be stopped and oil would become expensive.
Now the two countries are talking about letting ships move freely again, and they may reach an agreement soon.
When peace seems closer, the price of oil goes down, and it fell to about $75 for one barrel.
There are places called stock markets where people buy small pieces of companies, like shops, car makers, and computer businesses.
When people feel happy and safe, they buy more, and markets go up; this week, some US markets made record highs.
But when people feel unsure, they sell, and markets go down; markets in Japan and South Korea fell sharply on Thursday.
Indian markets also went up and down, and leaders there are waiting for a big bank meeting that decides interest rates.
Interest rates decide how much it costs to borrow money, which affects shops, homes, and businesses all over India.
Hopes for a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifted global sentiment, with WTI crude slipping to near $75 a barrel.
US stocks notched record closes early in the week — S&P 500 +1.8% on Tuesday — before ending mixed on Wednesday as the Dow rose 0.49% and the Nasdaq fell 0.83%.
Asian markets reversed from earlier gains: Kospi dropped 4.02% and Nikkei 225 fell 1.71% on Thursday morning as investors booked profits.
India's markets were set for a flat-to-positive open, with GIFT Nifty near 24,650–24,675, as traders awaited the RBI MPC decision due 5 August.
Iran and Oman reached an understanding on coordinates for a proposed Hormuz shipping route, but Iranian officials pushed back on reports that a deal is imminent; the articles differ on Nifty's previous close (24,614 vs 24,624).
- Who
- Global investors and traders; US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; Iranian officials; Indian market experts including Ponmudi R of Enrich Money, Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities and Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities.
- What
- Global equities swung between record rallies and sharp profit-taking on hopes and doubts over a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with crude near $75 and Indian markets set for a flat-to-positive open ahead of the RBI MPC decision.
- Where
- Global markets, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Europe and India (Dalal Street, Mumbai).
- When
- Early August 2026, centred on 5 August 2026, covering Tuesday and Wednesday US sessions and Thursday Asian trading.
- Why
- Optimism over a possible US-Iran agreement to normalise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, falling crude prices, strong corporate earnings and AI-driven tech rallies were tempered by geopolitical uncertainty and profit-booking.
Deal Optimists
Skeptics
Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline
Deal Optimists
US President Donald Trump said an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Wednesday, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a deal could come 'today or tomorrow.'
Skeptics
Iranian officials pushed back against reports that a deal is imminent, noting that key details remain under discussion and the arrangement does not yet guarantee the waterway's security.
Market direction
Deal Optimists
Optimism drove record US closes (S&P 500 +1.8%, Dow record), strong Asian rallies, and a sixth consecutive session of FII buying in India, with crude easing to near $75.
Skeptics
Investors booked profits after the AI-driven tech rally, pulling Asian markets sharply lower (Kospi -4.02%), while analysts cautioned that markets remain vulnerable to fresh headlines until geopolitical clarity and the RBI MPC outcome are known.
Key facts
- WTI crude oil
- Trading near $75 per barrel
- Dow Jones (Wednesday close)
- Record close of 54,349.12, +0.49%
- S&P 500
- +1.8% Tuesday record close; -0.17% Wednesday
- Kospi (Thursday)
- Down 4.02%
- Nikkei 225 (Thursday)
- Down 1.71%
- GIFT Nifty
- Oscillating in the 24,650–24,675 range
- RBI MPC decision
- Due 5 August 2026 morning
- SpaceX stock
- Fell 13% after first earnings as a public company
Quotes
Ponmudi R
CEO at Enrich Money
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to a record close as hopes of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz supported economically sensitive stocks, while the Asian equities are trading lower this morning as investors booked profits following the recent AI-driven rally.”
livemint.com
“While the recent decline in crude oil prices reflects growing optimism over a potential normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity on the evolving geopolitical situation.”
livemint.com
Shrikant Chouhan
Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities
“We believe that, as long as the market is trading between these ranges, a range‑bound texture is likely to continue.”
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