11 hrs ago
Motilal Oswal Names Top Auto Picks Amid September Growth
Motilal Oswal expects many vehicle businesses to sell more vehicles in September 2026.
The festive season may encourage more people to visit showrooms.
Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor Company and Mahindra & Mahindra are the brokerage’s preferred vehicle companies.
Maruti could benefit from customer orders, low dealer stock and more factory capacity.
TVS may benefit from strong exports.
Commercial vehicles could see strong demand from freight activity.
Tractor sales may fall because last year’s comparison was unusually favorable.
Rainfall, El Niño, production limits and rising material costs could affect the final results.
Motilal Oswal expects double-digit retail growth across major auto segments in September 2026.
Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor Company and Mahindra & Mahindra are its preferred original equipment manufacturer picks.
Passenger-vehicle retail sales may rise about 20%, while listed manufacturers’ wholesale growth is projected at 18.2%.
Two-wheeler retail demand is expected to remain strong, but production constraints could keep wholesale growth flat.
Tractor growth may weaken sharply as the favorable base effect fades, with weather and El Niño adding uncertainty.
- Who
- Motilal Oswal, automobile manufacturers and auto-component companies, including Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor Company and Mahindra & Mahindra.
- What
- The brokerage has identified its preferred auto stocks and forecast growth across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, commercial vehicles and tractors.
- Where
- India’s automobile market, including domestic retail, wholesale and export operations.
- When
- September 2026, with additional risks and trends expected during the second half of the year.
- Why
- Festive demand, freight activity, export volumes and additional production capacity may support growth, while higher base effects, production constraints, weather and commodity inflation may limit it.
Growth Drivers
Constraints and Risks
Festive-season demand
Growth Drivers
Festive demand is expected to lift passenger-vehicle, two-wheeler and commercial-vehicle retail sales, with commercial-vehicle retail growth projected at about 30%.
Constraints and Risks
A higher base from the previous year could make growth rates moderate even if underlying demand remains healthy.
Vehicle production and supply
Growth Drivers
Maruti Suzuki may benefit from its order backlog, low dealer inventory and added capacity at Kharkhoda and Gujarat; TVS Motor may gain from exports.
Constraints and Risks
Mahindra & Mahindra may face production limitations, while Royal Enfield could remain constrained by capacity and two-wheeler wholesale growth may stay flat.
Tractor outlook
Growth Drivers
Tractor demand previously benefited from a lower comparison base following GST rate cuts.
Constraints and Risks
That benefit is fading, and Motilal Oswal expects tractor wholesales for the two listed players to decline 31.4% year on year; erratic rainfall and El Niño could further weigh on demand.
Key facts
- Top OEM picks
- Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor Company and Mahindra & Mahindra
- Top component picks
- Happy Forgings, Motherson Sumi Wiring India, Samvardhana Motherson International, Suprajit Engineering and Tenneco Clean Air India
- Passenger-vehicle retail outlook
- Approximately 20% growth in September
- Passenger-vehicle wholesale outlook
- 18.2% year-on-year growth for four listed manufacturers
- Commercial-vehicle retail outlook
- Approximately 30% growth in September
- Two-wheeler wholesale outlook
- Growth may remain flat despite double-digit retail growth
- Tractor wholesale outlook
- 31.4% year-on-year decline expected for two listed players
- Key risks
- Higher comparison bases, production constraints, export challenges, commodity inflation, erratic rainfall and El Niño
Quotes
Motilal Oswal
Brokerage firm whose research report evaluates automobile-sector companies and demand trends.
“Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles are expected to outperform the industry with double-digit growth, given a healthy order backlog and lean channel inventory.”
financialexpress.com
“TVS is expected to be the clear outperformer, with double-digit growth driven by strong export volumes.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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