Business · Economy · 9 hrs ago
Forecast El Niño could test Brazil’s crops and economy in 2027
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific that can shift weather in different parts of the world.
Forecasts cited in Brazil point to an exceptionally strong episode, with a peak expected in December.
The World Meteorological Organization projects a Pacific temperature anomaly of 3.7°C, above the previous record of 2.6°C.
In Brazil, forecasters warn of drought in the central and northern regions and excess rain in the South as farmers plant a crop expected to reach a record size.
Dry, hot conditions could reduce soybean yields, while rain may help soybeans in the South but harm wheat.
The uneven weather could also affect electricity supplies, with October water inflows forecast to be low in parts of the North and high in the South.
Brazil’s central bank will need to assess whether any price shock spreads to expectations and other prices, while the government can respond to problems that interest-rate policy cannot address.
A forecast El Niño could bring sharply different weather risks across Brazil as farmers plant a crop expected to reach a record.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated an 83% chance that the phenomenon would exceed all episodes recorded since 1950 during October to December.
The World Meteorological Organization projects a 3.7°C temperature anomaly in the Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region, with a peak expected in December.
A panel coordinated by Brazil’s Inmet warned of drought in the center-north and excessive rain in the South.
Brazil’s crop agency projects 366.6 million tonnes of grain, while warning that average yields may fall.
- Who
- Brazilian farmers and the country’s agricultural and economic sectors.
- What
- A forecast, potentially exceptional El Niño could bring drought to the center-north and excessive rain to the South, putting crops and parts of the economy at risk.
- When
- The forecast peak is in December 2026; the potential effects on crops and the economy are discussed for 2027.
- Where
- Brazil, with regional risks in the center-north, South, Southeast/Central-West and North.
- Why
- El Niño can bring contrasting weather across regions, affecting crop development, production and electricity supplies.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
No direct quotes in the coverage so far.
NOAA estimated an 83% chance that El Niño would exceed all episodes recorded since 1950 during October to December.
The ONS projected October water inflows at 244% of average in the South, 128% in the Southeast/Central-West and 48% in the North.
The World Meteorological Organization’s forecast places the El Niño temperature anomaly peak in this month.
- NOAA probability
- 83% chance of an El Niño stronger than all episodes recorded since 1950 in October–December
- Niño 3.4 projection
- 3.7°C average temperature anomaly, with a December peak
- Previous record
- 2.6°C, recorded from November 2015 to January 2016
- Grain forecast
- 366.6 million tonnes projected by Conab
- Extreme drought
- Municipalities affected rose from 4 to 24 in one month, according to partial Cemaden data
- Belo Monte inflows
- Forecast at 22% of the usual level
Sources
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