Business · Markets · 3 hrs ago
Brazilian stocks jumped after the first round, but past elections brought declines after runoffs
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index rose 7.7% in the first trading session after the first round of the 2026 presidential election, passing 200,000 points for the first time.
Flávio Bolsonaro had a slight lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the runoff was set for October 25.
The first round can surprise investors by showing which candidates are in contention and how the new Congress looks.
In the weeks before a runoff, investors may adjust prices to reflect polls and expectations.
Looking at the six presidential elections from 2002 to 2022, the index rose after the first round in five cases, but fell after the final round in four.
The column says investors may sell to take profits once an expected result is confirmed, especially after a large rise.
Foreign investors account for about 63% of daily trading on the B3 exchange, and they brought R$10 billion into the market on the Monday after the first round.
Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 7.7% in the first trading session after the 2026 presidential election’s first round, its largest reaction to a first round in the series cited by Folha.
The index crossed 200,000 points for the first time.
Folha says the market’s gains after first rounds have not reliably continued after runoffs.
Across the six presidential elections from 2002 to 2022, the Ibovespa fell after the runoff in four cases, by an average of 1.3%.
The article says investors may take profits once election results confirm expectations already reflected in share prices.
- Who
- Investors in Brazilian stocks, including foreign investors trading on the B3.
- What
- The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% after the first round, while historical data cited by Folha show declines after most runoffs.
- When
- The first-round reaction was on Monday, October 5, 2026; the article was published October 12, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil’s B3 stock exchange.
- Why
- The article attributes the rise to first-round surprises and says subsequent results can be priced in before the runoff, leaving investors with an incentive to take profits.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
O mercado não lê o seu grupo de WhatsApp.
O velho "compre no boato, venda no fato".
In the six presidential elections covered, the Ibovespa rose after the first round in five and fell after the runoff in four.
The Ibovespa rose 7.7% in the first trading session after the first round and crossed 200,000 points.
Folha published its analysis of the market’s historical reactions to election rounds.
- First-round rise
- 7.7%
- Index milestone
- Ibovespa crossed 200,000 points
- Historical period
- Six presidential elections from 2002 to 2022
- After first rounds
- Ibovespa rose in five of six cases, averaging 2.1%
- After runoffs
- Ibovespa fell in four of six cases, averaging 1.3%
- Foreign share of daily trading
- About 63% of B3 volume, according to data compiled by JPMorgan
Sources
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