Health · Public Health & Disease · 2 hrs ago
Experts identify 17 major health threats, including two with extinction potential
An international team of experts assessed 17 major threats to global health between 2025 and 2100.
The assessment says malicious uses of AI, including creating bioweapons, and nuclear conflict that leads to famine have a low probability but could threaten humanity’s survival.
It identifies 15 other major risks, including climate change, air pollution, pandemics, armed conflict and antimicrobial resistance.
The researchers estimate that obesity has the largest potentially avoidable health burden among these risks, followed by low educational attainment and income inequality.
Their estimates compare possible health losses under better and worse scenarios, rather than predicting exactly what will happen.
The threats overlap, so their estimated burdens cannot simply be added together.
The researchers say decisions by leaders now could reduce future harm, but the assessment does not set out specific next steps.
An international team of experts identified 17 major global health threats facing humanity this century.
The researchers rated malicious AI and nuclear conflict involving nuclear famine as having “extinction potential” by 2100, despite their low probability.
They estimated that obesity has the largest potentially avoidable health burden, at 23.1 billion disability-adjusted life-years.
The assessment says action by leaders could reduce the health losses caused by these threats.
- Who
- Dozens of scientific experts, including the co-chairs of The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health.
- What
- They assessed 17 major global health threats and estimated how much death and disability could potentially be avoided.
- When
- The assessment considers risks and potential health losses from 2025 to 2100.
- Where
- The assessment was published in The Lancet; the threats are global.
- Why
- To assess the dangers and highlight the health losses that action could help prevent.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
This story does not have a timeline yet.
- Threats identified
- 17 major global health threats
- Potential extinction-level threats
- Malicious AI and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine
- Assessment period
- 2025–2100
- Largest potentially avoidable burden
- Obesity: 23.1 billion DALYs
- Projected total burden
- 246 billion DALYs between 2025 and 2100
What people are saying
The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act
Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and well-being of the next generation.
Sources
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