Politics · United Kingdom · 2 hrs ago
English councils forecast £10bn in special-needs support debt by 2028
Councils in England forecast their debts from special educational needs and disability support will reach £10bn by 2028.
The debts are growing as more children need support in schools, while funding has not kept pace, according to the County Councils Network.
Councils say they could rebuild more than £5bn in debt by April, after the government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic debts.
Many families and schools are seeking formal education, health and care plans before government reforms change how support is provided.
The reforms aim to provide more support in mainstream schools, reducing the need for these plans.
Councils warn that debts could threaten their finances and force difficult choices about other public services; children may also face longer waits for support.
The government has agreed to cover 90% of eligible debts built up to March 2026, but it has not said how much of future debt it will cover, and the current arrangement keeping debts off council books is due to end in April 2028.
English councils forecast that their special educational needs and disability support debts could reach £10bn by 2028.
The County Councils Network says rising demand for support is driving the overspending and that councils should not be left to carry the debt.
Councils have already had more than £5bn in historic Send debts cleared, and authorities expect to accrue that amount again by April.
Ministers have agreed to cover 90% of eligible debts accumulated to March 2026, but have not confirmed how far future debts will be covered.
The government plans to move towards more Send support in mainstream schools, while councils warn that debts could threaten their finances when a temporary accounting arrangement ends in April 2028.
- Who
- English councils, represented by the County Councils Network, and the government.
- What
- Councils forecast that Send debts could reach £10bn by 2028 and are calling for ministers to guarantee future debts.
- When
- The forecast was published on Tuesday; the article was published on 12 October 2026. The temporary debt accounting arrangement is due to expire in April 2028.
- Where
- England.
- Why
- Demand for special educational needs and disability support has risen rapidly, while funding has not kept pace, according to the County Councils Network.
English councils and the County Councils Network
UK government ministers
Future debt support
English councils and the County Councils Network
The County Councils Network says ministers should guarantee future Send debts and argues that anything less than paying down 90% would be a financial catastrophe for councils.
UK government ministers
Ministers have said future debt support would be appropriate and proportionate, but not unlimited.
Cause of overspending
English councils and the County Councils Network
The County Councils Network says debts result from rapidly growing statutory demand and insufficient funding, not reckless council spending.
UK government ministers
Not stated.
The government-commissioned Fonagy report was published and said rising conditions were real and causing distress, while demand for support would be unsustainable without new ways to manage pressure on public services.
The County Councils Network published forecasts that Send debts could reach £10bn by 2028.
Authorities predict they will have re-accrued the more than £5bn in historic Send debts that the government recently cleared.
The government has agreed to pay 90% of English top-tier councils’ Send debts accumulated up to this point.
The temporary arrangement keeping accumulated Send debts off council balance sheets is due to expire.
- Forecast debt
- £10bn by 2028
- Historic debts cleared
- More than £5bn
- Government coverage
- 90% of eligible debts accumulated to March 2026
- Accounting arrangement expiry
- April 2028
- Support plans
- Education, health and care plans (EHCPs) mandate support for conditions including speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD.
What people are saying
These deficits have not accumulated because councils have chosen to spend recklessly: they are the result of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand, which has only intensified this year, without funding keeping pace.
If councils are left carrying billions of pounds of Send debt, it will not just be a problem for local authorities. Taxpayers and local communities will ultimately bear the consequences as councils face impossible choices about how to protect frontline services while managing debts that have accrued through no fault of their own.
Sources
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