Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
IMF sees Saudi Arabia leading G20 growth in 2027
The IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to shrink 3.3% in 2026 as war and lower oil output weigh on growth.
The forecast assumes a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil exports.
Alternative export routes have helped Saudi Arabia keep oil flowing to global markets despite disruptions.
The IMF expects the economy to grow 7.9% in 2027, which would be the fastest rate among G20 economies.
Saudi Arabia’s 2027 outlook is stronger than the IMF’s earlier forecast, while the country’s Finance Ministry expects growth of 12.8% that year.
The ministry also forecasts a 3.6% contraction in 2026, slightly deeper than the IMF estimate.
The differing forecasts reflect uncertainty about the recovery, including how oil production and the non-oil economy perform.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow 7.9% in 2027, the fastest rate among G20 economies.
The forecast is 2.4 percentage points higher than the IMF’s July projection.
The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia by five percentage points, to a contraction of 3.3%, citing an assumption of a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has used alternative export routes, including the East-West pipeline, to maintain oil supplies to global markets amid regional tensions.
Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry forecasts 12.8% growth in 2027, above the IMF’s projection.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund. Saudi Arabia is the economy covered by the forecast.
- What
- The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to have the fastest economic growth among G20 economies in 2027, at 7.9%.
- When
- The forecast was reported on October 13, 2026, for 2027.
- Where
- Saudi Arabia.
- Why
- The IMF cites an expected economic rebound. The article also describes alternative export routes that helped maintain oil supplies.
International Monetary Fund
Saudi Finance Ministry
2027 growth forecast
International Monetary Fund
The IMF projects growth of 7.9%.
Saudi Finance Ministry
The ministry forecasts growth of 12.8%.
Saudi Arabia resumed operations on the East-West pipeline and crude flows to the western coast after an interruption of about 10 days following a drone attack.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company had operational flexibility and logistical capabilities to meet customer commitments despite geopolitical disruptions.
Saudi Economy and Planning Ministry chief economist Yasser Faqih said Saudi oil production and exports had returned to pre-war levels.
The IMF forecast 7.9% growth for Saudi Arabia in 2027 and cut its 2026 forecast to a 3.3% contraction.
- IMF 2027 forecast
- 7.9% growth
- IMF 2026 forecast
- 3.3% contraction
- Saudi Finance Ministry 2027 forecast
- 12.8% growth
- Saudi oil production
- 7.9 million barrels per day through the end of August
- September oil exports
- Average of 7.12 million barrels per day
- East-West pipeline flows
- Later rose to about 5.8 million barrels per day
What people are saying
Aramco continues to study additional export routes and enhance its storage capabilities outside the Kingdom to ensure continuity of supplies to global markets.
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الاقتصاد السعودي مرشح في 2027 لتسجيل أسرع وتيرة نمو منذ مطلع الثمانينيات - توقعات متفائلة للنمو على المدى المتوسط، بحسب وزارة المالية.. فكيف جاءت؟ @ekramy20 مزيد من التفاصيل في التعليقات 👇
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