Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
IMF forecasts Saudi economy to grow 7.9% in 2027
The IMF forecasts Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow 7.9% in 2027, more than twice its projected global growth rate of 3.4%.
The forecast follows an expected 3.3% contraction in 2026, after the economy grew 4.6% in 2025.
Conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have hurt energy production and trade across the region.
Saudi Arabia has been less affected because it has more diversified routes for exporting energy, including a pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The IMF expects the Strait of Hormuz to begin reopening in March 2027, with shipping conditions broadly returning to pre-war levels by October.
The rebound depends on trade and energy flows returning to normal, and the IMF warns that prolonged conflict or further shipping disruption could weaken the outlook.
The IMF forecasts Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow 7.9% in 2027 as energy production and exports recover.
The fund expects the economy to contract by 3.3% in 2026, after growing 4.6% in 2025.
It raised its 2027 growth forecast by 2.4 percentage points from its July update.
The IMF says Saudi Arabia is less affected by energy disruptions because it has more diversified export routes.
The recovery depends on trade and energy flows returning to normal.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund issued the forecast for Saudi Arabia.
- What
- The IMF projects economic growth of 7.9% in 2027, following a projected contraction of 3.3% in 2026.
- When
- The forecast was reported on October 13, 2026, and covers 2027.
- Where
- Saudi Arabia.
- Why
- The IMF expects energy production, exports and trade flows to recover. Diversified export routes have helped cushion the effects of disruptions.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by 4.6%, according to the IMF.
The IMF projects Saudi Arabia’s economy will contract by 3.3%.
The East-West pipeline resumed transporting crude to Yanbu after a 10-day stoppage following a drone attack.
Saudi Economy and Planning Ministry chief economist Yasser Faqih said oil production and exports had returned to pre-war levels.
The IMF forecast Saudi economic growth of 7.9% in 2027.
- 2027 growth forecast
- 7.9%
- 2026 GDP forecast
- 3.3% contraction
- Revision to 2027 forecast
- Up 2.4 percentage points from the IMF’s July update
- 2025 GDP growth
- 4.6%
- East-West pipeline capacity
- 7 million barrels per day
- Pipeline flows after resumption
- 5.8 million barrels per day
What people are saying
Saudi Arabia is somewhat less affected, as an economy with more diversified export routes, with a projected contraction of 3.3 percent in 2026 and growth of 7.9 percent in 2027
The bigger opportunity is for that confidence to translate into deeper private and international capital participation.
The next phase will increasingly be about occupancy, pricing power, visitor spending and returns on those assets
Saudi Arabia combines Red Sea access, Gulf connectivity and significant investment in ports, airports, rail and logistics infrastructure.
Sources
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