Health · Medical Research · 22 hrs ago
Stomach cancer cases in Brazil are projected to rise as H. pylori remains hard to treat
Brazil is projected to record 22,500 new stomach cancer cases from 2026 to 2028, an increase on previous estimates.
Stomach cancer has killed more than 12,000 people a year in the country for two decades, and 14,900 deaths were recorded in 2024.
The bacterium H. pylori is linked to 78% of Brazil’s stomach cancer burden, and infection is estimated to affect 70% of the population.
It can cause changes in the stomach over many years that may lead to cancer, and it spreads in part through contact with water contaminated by waste.
Many cases are found late because the disease can have few symptoms, while Brazil’s public health system cannot provide testing and treatment for everyone who may be infected.
The cancer’s mortality rate is above 60%, and experts say cases are likely to keep rising in the coming years.
Brazil is projected to record 22,500 new stomach cancer diagnoses in the 2026–2028 period, according to the latest estimate from the National Cancer Institute.
The projection is higher than the estimates for the previous two three-year periods.
Experts cited difficulty eradicating H. pylori, an infection linked to most of Brazil’s stomach cancer burden, as a key factor.
Stomach cancer deaths have remained high, with 14,900 recorded in 2024, the latest year in the data cited.
A gastroenterologist said late diagnosis contributes to the high death rate.
- Who
- People in Brazil at risk of or diagnosed with stomach cancer, and health experts discussing the trend.
- What
- Stomach cancer cases are projected to rise, while H. pylori remains difficult to eradicate.
- When
- The latest projection covers 2026–2028. The article was published on October 11, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Experts point to difficulty eradicating H. pylori, late diagnosis, population ageing and rising obesity.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Stomach cancer causes no symptoms in many of those affected. People arrive at the doctor suspecting anemia or less serious gastric problems, and the disease is already advanced.
It is estimated that 70% of Brazil’s population is infected with H. pylori. This is only an estimate; the public system cannot provide endoscopies for all of them, or less invasive tests.
Contamination occurs mainly through water coming into contact with waste. If we look, for example, at communities living beside polluted streams, it is very likely that most of them have the bacterium.
Brazil recorded 12,435 deaths from stomach cancer, according to National Cancer Institute data.
The death toll reached 13,000.
The death toll reached 14,000.
The death toll reached 15,000.
The latest year in the cited data recorded 14,900 deaths.
The National Cancer Institute projects 22,500 new diagnoses over the three-year period.
- Projected new diagnoses
- 22,500 in 2026–2028
- Previous projection
- 21,200 for 2020–2022
- Previous projection
- 21,400 for 2023–2025
- Stomach cancer deaths
- 14,900 in 2024
- Estimated H. pylori infection
- 70% of Brazil’s population
- Share of stomach cancer burden linked to H. pylori
- 78%
Sources
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