Business · Markets · 1 hr ago
US stock bull market reaches four years as AI shares lead gains
The US stock market’s bull run reached its fourth anniversary on October 12, measured from the S&P 500’s closing low in 2022.
Since then, the index has risen 118.3%, while the Nasdaq has gained 161.5%.
Companies supplying equipment and technology for artificial intelligence infrastructure have led much of the rise.
The run has made several semiconductor companies worth more than $1 trillion, including Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and AMD.
But US government bond yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than 20 years, making stocks less attractive and raising borrowing costs for companies.
Some analysts also warn that gains have become concentrated in a small number of large technology firms, while others point to past bull markets that continued rising in their fifth year.
The market is now entering that fifth year, but the outlook is uncertain.
The US bull market marked its fourth anniversary on October 12, with the S&P 500 up 118.3% since its October 2022 closing low.
AI-related stocks, particularly companies supplying infrastructure for AI, led much of the rally.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 161.5% over the same period.
Rising US Treasury yields and the rally’s concentration in a small group of large companies have raised concerns about its prospects.
Some analysts remain optimistic, citing historical gains in the fifth year of bull markets.
- Who
- US stock market investors and companies, with AI-related stocks leading the gains.
- What
- The US bull market reached its fourth anniversary after a sharp rise in major stock indexes.
- When
- October 12, 2026, marked four years since the S&P 500’s closing low on October 12, 2022.
- Where
- US stock markets.
- Why
- AI-related stocks rose as companies built AI infrastructure, lifting the market. The article also cites optimism about the fifth year of bull markets.
Market skeptics
Bull-market optimists
Interest rates
Market skeptics
Rising Treasury yields can pressure stock valuations and raise borrowing costs, making the AI rally more vulnerable.
Bull-market optimists
Bull markets that last more than four years have historically gained an average of nearly 19% in their fifth year.
Market breadth and risks
Market skeptics
The rally is concentrated in a few large technology stocks, and the risk-reward balance may no longer be favorable.
Bull-market optimists
The bull market has historically rarely ended in its fifth year, and this one has had one of the strongest fourth-year starts.
The S&P 500 reached a closing low of 3,577.03, marking the start of the bull market.
OpenAI released ChatGPT, after which stocks supplying infrastructure for AI rose sharply.
Micron Technology’s market value passed $1 trillion for the first time.
The bull market reached its fourth anniversary, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,807.20.
- S&P 500 rise
- 118.3% from its October 2022 closing low
- Nasdaq Composite rise
- 161.5% over the same period
- S&P 500 close
- 7,807.20 on October 12, 2026
- US 10-year Treasury yield
- 5.237%
- Nvidia market value
- $5.464 trillion
- Fifth-year historical return
- Nearly 19% average for bull markets lasting more than four years since 1950
What people are saying
If bonds offer similar yields with much lower volatility, pension funds and others have greater incentive to move money from stocks to bonds.
The concentration in technology stocks is excessive, and the risk-reward is no longer favorable.
The bull market has ended in its fifth year only once, more than 50 years ago.
This bull market has had the third-best start of any bull market at the four-year mark.
Sources
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