Business · Markets · 1 hr ago
Brazilian real falls as poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula
The dollar rose against Brazil’s real on Tuesday, reaching 5.022 reais at 9:48 a.m.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 52% to 48% in a new poll of valid votes.
Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots and undecided voters, and the poll’s margin of error is two percentage points.
The result is part of a close and changing presidential race that investors are watching as they make decisions about Brazilian markets.
Investors are also weighing risks abroad and oil prices; Brent crude was above $100 a barrel despite falling that morning.
A Senate vote on a proposed change to the 6x1 work schedule was expected Wednesday and could affect the election campaign.
The Brazilian real weakened on Tuesday as investors reacted to a poll showing Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The dollar rose 0.73% to 5.022 reais at 9:48 a.m.
The BTG/Nexus poll gave Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%.
The poll’s margin of error was two percentage points in either direction.
Investors were also watching external risks, including geopolitical tensions and high oil prices.
- Who
- Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were the candidates in the poll. Investors responded to its results.
- What
- The Brazilian real weakened as the dollar rose after a poll showed Bolsonaro ahead of Lula.
- When
- Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Investors reacted to the poll’s result, which could affect market expectations around the election.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
An earlier poll, completed before the first round, was published.
Brazil’s stock market rose 1.38% to 209,066 points, while the dollar closed down 0.77% at 4.985 reais.
The BTG/Nexus poll showed Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes and Lula with 48%; the dollar rose 0.73% to 5.022 reais at 9:48 a.m.
- Poll
- BTG/Nexus
- Bolsonaro
- 52% of valid votes
- Lula
- 48% of valid votes
- Poll margin of error
- 2 percentage points in either direction
- Dollar at 9:48 a.m.
- 5.022 reais, up 0.73%
What people are saying
This week we have, in addition to polls still to come, which is what has been driving market movements, with increased flows mainly from foreign investors, probably the vote on the 6x1 work schedule tomorrow in the Senate on Wednesday (14). This is a process that could affect the election race.
Sources
Related news
Brazil’s dividend tax may affect ownership stakes and future sale costs
Economists raise Brazil’s 2026 inflation forecast and lower rate outlook
CSN agrees to sell German steel plant for €550 million
Brazil energy plan projects distributed generation to reach 91.7 GW by 2036
Vamos shares surge while Vale nears recent lows
Earnings season may test whether AI boosts company productivity
Brazilian mini-dollar futures extend losses as real strengthens
Brazil mini-index rises as overbought reading signals caution
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index sets a new intraday record
Júnior Vianna to demonstrate Renko chart analysis at Casa Clear
CAIXA consortium leads Brazil in real estate credit awards
