Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
Exports are keeping Argentina's economy afloat as consumption and investment weaken
Argentina's economy is relying mainly on exports for growth, according to consultancy Qualy.
In the second quarter, the economy shrank from the previous quarter, as private consumption and investment fell while exports rose.
Activity fell further in July, with declines in commerce and manufacturing, while fishing and oil and gas-related mining grew.
Unemployment reached 7.9% in the second quarter, and households cut back on spending and sought cheaper goods.
This matters because the growing sectors employ fewer people than the sectors that are shrinking, according to Qualy.
The consultancy expects low activity to remain the most likely situation at least through the second quarter of 2027, while Argentina's Economy Ministry projects average growth of 3% in 2026.
Higher oil prices could lift energy export earnings, but high interest rates keep borrowing costs up.
Argentina’s economy is being supported mainly by exports as consumption and investment weaken, according to consultancy Qualy.
In the second quarter, gross domestic product fell 0.6% from the first quarter, while private consumption fell 2.4% and investment fell 0.8%.
Exports grew 2.5% in the quarter, but monthly economic activity fell 2.9% in July from June.
Qualy says weakness is concentrated in commerce and industry, which employ more workers than the growing fishing and energy-related mining sectors.
Qualy expects subdued growth to remain the most likely scenario through at least the second quarter of 2027, while the Economy Ministry projects average growth of 3% in 2026.
- Who
- Argentina’s economy, as assessed by consultancy Qualy.
- What
- Exports are supporting economic activity as consumption and investment weaken.
- When
- The cited activity data cover the second quarter and July; the article was published on October 12, 2026.
- Where
- Argentina.
- Why
- Exports grew while private consumption and investment fell; Qualy says the sectors gaining ground have weaker links to mass employment.
Qualy
Argentina’s Economy Ministry
Economic outlook
Qualy
Qualy says a low-growth economy is the most likely scenario through at least the second quarter of 2027.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry
The Economy Ministry projects average growth of 3% in 2026.
is flying
wait and see
low-revolutions economy
Argentina’s GDP fell 0.6% from the first quarter, while private consumption and investment also declined.
Monthly economic activity fell 2.9% from June, with declines concentrated in commerce and industry.
Inflation was 1.7%, the third-lowest reading of Javier Milei’s administration.
The official dollar closed at about 1,540 pesos, and the country risk measure rose to 609 points.
- GDP change
- Fell 0.6% in the second quarter from the first quarter
- Private consumption
- Fell 2.4% in the second quarter
- Exports
- Grew 2.5% in the second quarter
- Monthly activity
- Fell 2.9% in July from June
- Unemployment
- 7.9% in the second quarter
- Economy Ministry forecast
- Average growth of 3% in 2026
Sources
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