Science & Tech · AI · 2 hrs ago
Start-ups use AI to forecast events, markets and risks
Start-ups are using artificial intelligence to estimate the chances of future events, from market movements to political and business developments.
These systems draw on large amounts of public and private data, and some are now performing as well as highly skilled human forecasters.
In early September, two AI models took the top places in the Metaculus Cup, a competition for prediction experts.
The forecasts give probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes, and can connect events such as oil-price changes and conflict in the Middle East.
AI tools are already being used by some customers to inform trading, including on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Companies and governments are also exploring forecasts to assess regulation, policy, medical research and insurance risks.
The systems could make decision-making more automated, while people without access to costly tools may find it harder to compete, and one start-up founder warned that other countries could develop better systems.
Start-ups are using artificial intelligence to forecast outcomes ranging from financial markets to government decisions and medical research.
Two AI models took the top spots in the Metaculus Cup in early September, a competition among human and non-human prediction champions.
Some start-ups say AI forecasts can help companies assess risks, while others warn that retail investors may struggle to compete with AI systems.
The tools estimate probabilities rather than guarantee outcomes, and can assess links between events.
- Who
- Start-ups including FutureSearch, Preseen and Mantic are developing or using AI forecasting tools.
- What
- They use AI to estimate the likelihood of events and outcomes.
- When
- The article was published on October 12, 2026; two AI models won the top spots in a competition in early September.
- Where
- The story is reported from New York and discusses markets including Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Why
- The start-ups aim to improve forecasting and support decisions about trading, risks and other issues.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
By 2030, “we’re going to feel that what we were doing for our decision-making was complete Stone Age thinking
they will soon just be dominated by AI forecasting systems
it’s probably already having a small impact because we already have customers who use it when making trading decisions
I’m also a little bit scared because, you know, maybe Russia or China has better systems.
Algorithms had already begun shaping Wall Street.
Two AI models took the top spots in the Metaculus Cup.
Dan Schwarz said decision-making could look like “complete Stone Age thinking” by that year.
- Metaculus Cup
- Two AI models took the top spots in early September
- Preseen trading
- Theo Summer used AI tools to turn US$35 into US$1.9 million in seven months
- Kalshi
- An American prediction-making site used by Theo Summer
- Mantic
- Has provided a large American company with scenarios of regulatory developments
- FutureSearch
- Co-founded by Dan Schwarz
Sources
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