Business · Markets · 8 hrs ago
RBC estimates BBVA will distribute €41.4 billion to shareholders by 2028
BBVA is expected to distribute €41.4 billion to shareholders from 2025 to 2028, according to estimates by RBC analysts.
That total includes cash dividends and share buybacks, which are ways companies return money to shareholders.
BBVA’s own target is €36 billion over the same period, so RBC’s estimate is €5.4 billion higher.
RBC also expects BBVA to earn €49.7 billion over those four years, compared with the bank’s forecast of €48 billion.
The estimates reflect analysts’ view that profits could exceed the bank’s expectations, and RBC projects an average annual shareholder return of 8.4% from 2026 to 2028.
BBVA has been explaining its priorities, including technology and artificial intelligence, to analysts and investors, but some analysts say the potential benefits are already reflected in its share price.
BBVA is due to publish third-quarter results in late October, after which investors can compare its performance with expectations.
RBC estimates BBVA will distribute €41.4 billion to shareholders between 2025 and 2028, 15% more than the bank’s target.
The estimate includes dividends and share buybacks and is €5.4 billion above BBVA’s stated plan.
RBC also forecasts BBVA will earn €49.7 billion over the period, compared with the bank’s forecast of €48 billion.
RBC estimates dividends and buybacks will produce an average annual shareholder return of 8.4% from 2026 to 2028.
- Who
- BBVA and its shareholders; RBC analysts made the estimates.
- What
- RBC forecasts €41.4 billion in dividends and share buybacks for BBVA shareholders between 2025 and 2028.
- When
- The distribution period is 2025 to 2028. RBC updated its estimates before BBVA’s third-quarter results, expected in late October.
- Where
- BBVA is a Spanish bank. The article also reports that the bank held a strategy event in Madrid.
- Why
- RBC expects BBVA to generate more profit than the bank has forecast.
RBC analysts
BBVA
Shareholder distributions
RBC analysts
RBC estimates BBVA will distribute €41.4 billion between 2025 and 2028.
BBVA
BBVA’s stated target is €36 billion over that period.
Profit
RBC analysts
RBC estimates BBVA will earn €49.7 billion between 2025 and 2028.
BBVA
BBVA forecasts earnings of €48 billion over that period.
BBVA’s stated target is to distribute €36 billion to shareholders over this period.
BBVA held the second edition of its strategy events in Madrid, focusing on artificial intelligence, technology and its business in Spain.
RBC updated its estimates ahead of BBVA’s planned third-quarter results presentation.
- RBC distribution estimate
- €41.4 billion for 2025–2028
- BBVA distribution target
- €36 billion for 2025–2028
- Difference from target
- €5.4 billion, or 15%
- RBC earnings estimate
- €49.7 billion for 2025–2028
- BBVA earnings forecast
- €48 billion for 2025–2028
- Estimated annual shareholder return
- 8.4% on average from 2026 to 2028
What people are saying
The BBVA continues to demonstrate its status as a pioneer in digital transformation, using technology as a key element of differentiation and a structural advantage
Although we expect solid performance ahead, we believe much of this positive outlook is already reflected in the share price
Sources
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