Business · Economy · 17 hrs ago
Barclays economist expects one or two UK rate rises, starting in November
Jack Meaning, chief economist at Barclays, expects the Bank of England to raise its base interest rate as soon as November.
The rate is currently 3.75%, where it has been since January 2026.
Meaning said rising energy prices linked to events in the Middle East are likely to push interest rates up.
Markets expect four increases of 0.25 percentage points over the next 12 months, but Meaning thinks there may be only one, or possibly a second early next year.
Higher interest rates are intended to slow inflation by making people and businesses spend less.
The expected rise in energy bills could add to inflation, though estimates for the increase in the Ofgem price cap range from 15% to 24% in the figures given.
Changes in the Bank of England’s base rate can affect mortgage and savings rates, and the Bank’s next decision will show whether it raises rates.
Barclays chief economist Jack Meaning expects one or two UK interest rate rises, with the first possibly coming in November.
Meaning said the Bank of England may raise rates because of developments in the Middle East.
He expects a smaller increase than markets, which he said were pricing in four quarter-point rises over the next 12 months.
The UK base rate is 3.75 per cent and has been at that level since January 2026.
Meaning discussed his forecast on the Martin Lewis BBC podcast, which aired on September 24.
- Who
- Jack Meaning, chief economist at Barclays, shared the forecast.
- What
- He expects one or two UK interest rate rises, starting possibly in November.
- When
- He made the comments on a podcast episode that aired on September 24. The year is not stated.
- Where
- On the Martin Lewis BBC podcast.
- Why
- Meaning said developments in the Middle East make rate rises likely.
Jack Meaning
Market analysts
Expected rate rises
Jack Meaning
Meaning expects one quarter-point rise, and possibly a second early next year if the Middle East situation continues.
Market analysts
Markets expect four quarter-point increases over the next 12 months.
Scale of increases
Jack Meaning
Meaning said the increases would be much less severe than the market expects.
Market analysts
Market pricing points to a total increase of one percentage point in short-term interest rates.
It's looking very likely now, given what's happening in the Middle East, that interest rates will change, that they will ultimately have to go up.
I think we'll maybe see one quarter-point increase, probably if the Middle East continues through the end of the year, a second one early next year, but the market is running far ahead of that.
Predictions about future interest rates are not just a crystal ball issue, they materially affect what happens today.
The first interest rate cut followed a period when the base rate had been falling from its peak of 5.25 per cent.
The base rate reached 3.75 per cent, where it has remained.
The Martin Lewis BBC podcast episode featuring Jack Meaning aired.
Meaning said the next rate increase could come as soon as November.
- Forecast
- One or two UK rate rises, with the first possibly in November
- Economist
- Jack Meaning, Barclays chief economist
- Current base rate
- 3.75 per cent
- Base rate unchanged since
- January 2026
- Market expectation
- Four 25-basis-point increases over 12 months
Sources
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