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Nuvama Favors Coal India, Tata Steel Ahead of Q2 Results
Nuvama looked at how metal companies might perform in the July-to-September quarter of FY27.
It expects many steelmakers to sell more after factory maintenance reduced output in the previous quarter.
But some steel prices have fallen, and coking coal is expected to cost more.
That could make it harder for companies to earn as much on each tonne of steel.
Nuvama is most positive about Coal India and Tata Steel.
It expects Coal India to benefit from higher output and stronger auction prices.
Tata Steel may fare better than other steelmakers because it sells more flat steel.
Nuvama expects Jindal Steel to have a tougher quarter because its prices and product mix may hurt earnings.
Its forecasts are estimates, not reported results.
Nuvama expects steel companies’ Q2 FY27 EBITDA to rise 10–13% sequentially, as volumes recover after Q1 maintenance shutdowns.
Lower steel realisations and higher coking coal costs are expected to outweigh some volume gains, reducing EBITDA per tonne by about ₹600–2,200.
Coal India is a preferred pick; Nuvama forecasts a 22% year-on-year rise in EBITDA excluding OBR, driven by higher volumes and e-auction prices.
Tata Steel is expected to outperform peers, with its EBITDA per tonne forecast to decline by about ₹610, the smallest drop among covered steel companies.
Jindal Steel is forecast to underperform, with EBITDA down about 13% sequentially and EBITDA per tonne declining by roughly ₹2,164.
- Who
- Nuvama Institutional Equities and the metal companies it covers, including Coal India, Tata Steel and Jindal Steel.
- What
- Nuvama issued a Q2 FY27 outlook, naming Coal India and Tata Steel as preferred picks and Jindal Steel as a likely underperformer.
- Where
- The outlook covers Indian metal and mining companies, as well as Tata Steel Europe and Novelis.
- When
- Ahead of the September quarter (Q2 FY27); the article does not give a publication date.
- Why
- Nuvama expects volume recovery to support steel earnings, while lower realisations and higher coking coal costs pressure margins; company-specific exposure and product mix shape its picks.
More resilient outlook
Greater pressure expected
Coal India and Tata Steel
More resilient outlook
Nuvama expects Coal India to benefit from higher volumes and e-auction prices, and Tata Steel to show relative resilience because of its flat-steel exposure.
Greater pressure expected
These are brokerage forecasts; the article also notes broader steel-sector pressure from lower realisations and higher coking coal costs.
Jindal Steel
More resilient outlook
The article does not present a positive case for Jindal Steel in Nuvama’s preview.
Greater pressure expected
Nuvama expects a sharper fall in realisations, an adverse product mix and higher coking coal costs to drive a roughly 13% sequential EBITDA decline.
Key facts
- Steel EBITDA outlook
- Most steel companies covered are expected to post 10–13% sequential EBITDA growth.
- Steel volume outlook
- Steel volumes are forecast to recover 6–25% quarter-on-quarter.
- Steel cost pressures
- Coking coal prices are expected to rise about $10–15 per tonne QoQ; iron ore costs may fall about ₹100 per tonne.
- Steel EBITDA per tonne
- Expected to decline about ₹600–2,200 per tonne across covered steel companies.
- Coal India
- EBITDA excluding OBR is forecast to rise 22% year-on-year.
- Tata Steel
- EBITDA per tonne is forecast to decline about ₹610 QoQ, the smallest decline among covered steel companies.
- Jindal Steel
- EBITDA is forecast to fall about 13% QoQ; EBITDA per tonne may decline about ₹2,164.
Sources
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