1 week ago
Research Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets Over Possible Military Insider Trading
Researchers studied public betting records on Polymarket, where people wager on possible future events.
They found 152 wallets that made unusually successful bets about military and defense topics.
Together, those wallets reportedly earned $8 million.
Their average win rate was 97.2 percent.
The researchers said some traders may have had secret information, although luck could also explain some results.
Other large traders and computer programs sometimes copied the bets.
That copying could make possible military secrets easier for others, including foreign intelligence agencies, to notice.
Polymarket says it watches for suspicious activity and has sent information about dozens of wallets to authorities.
The researchers want stronger identity checks and restrictions on especially sensitive markets.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 exceptionally successful wallets that traded on military and defense markets.
Those wallets collectively made $8 million and recorded an average win rate of 97.2%, according to the research.
ACDC said copycat bets by large traders and automated bots may amplify signals from potential insiders.
Polymarket says it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case.
ACDC recommends identity checks, withholding suspicious payouts, and potentially banning markets vulnerable to insider trading.
- Who
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed Polymarket wallets; Polymarket, the Department of Defense, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are involved in the broader issue.
- What
- Researchers identified 152 highly successful wallets that traded on military and defense markets and may have used non-public information.
- Where
- The activity occurred on Polymarket International, whose blockchain-based trading ledger is publicly visible; cited markets involved Iran, Tehran, and Venezuela.
- When
- ACDC analyzed settled markets through May 5; the report was published on Thursday, August 20, and cites examples involving February and June 2025 military actions.
- Why
- Researchers said possible insider trading could unfairly profit traders and broadcast signals about military actions to copycats or foreign adversaries.
Researchers and oversight advocates
Polymarket and market-transparency advocates
Possible insider trading
Researchers and oversight advocates
ACDC said the 152 military wallets were the most likely group in its analysis to have traded on military secrets, while acknowledging that luck could explain some results.
Polymarket and market-transparency advocates
Polymarket says it has strict controls, closely monitors suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case.
Copycat trading and national security
Researchers and oversight advocates
ACDC said large traders and automated bots copied possible insider bets, potentially amplifying and broadcasting signals that foreign intelligence agencies could monitor.
Polymarket and market-transparency advocates
Polymarket has said its public blockchain ledger allows greater scrutiny of trading activity; the articles do not report a direct company response to ACDC’s specific findings.
Proposed safeguards
Researchers and oversight advocates
ACDC called for identity verification, withholding suspicious payouts during investigations, and banning markets where non-public information could be especially actionable and profitable.
Polymarket and market-transparency advocates
The articles say copycat trading itself is legal and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to police misconduct, but they do not say whether Polymarket supports ACDC’s proposed bans.
Key facts
- Wallets identified
- ACDC found 152 exceptionally successful military and defense wallets, called “Orcas.”
- Total reported profits
- The wallets made $8 million collectively, according to the research.
- Average win rate
- The wallets had an average reported win rate of 97.2%.
- ACDC screening method
- The study defined long-shot bets as wagers totaling at least $2,500 within an hour on outcomes with odds of 35% or less.
- Broader Orca group
- ACDC identified 556 wallets meeting its broader “Orca” criteria.
- Copycat examples
- ACDC cited a $200,000 bot wager and a $100,000 whale wager copying a military-action bet before June 2025 strikes in Iran.
- Separate criminal case
- Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of making $400,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s removal; he has pleaded not guilty.
Quotes
David Szakonyi
Co‑founder of ACDC, a nonprofit research group
“"Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It's all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades."”
NDTV
theprint.in
Sources
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