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Nomura sees Nestle, Marico and Tata Consumer surprising in Q2
Nomura is a financial research firm that predicted how consumer companies may perform in the July-to-September quarter.
It expects sales and operating profits for India’s consumer-staples companies to grow by 13.8% from a year earlier.
Nestle India, Marico and Tata Consumer Products may perform better than expected.
Companies have raised prices, but their costs for materials such as packaging are rising even faster.
This could reduce their profit margins.
Rural shoppers may spend less if weak rainfall and drought conditions hurt farming incomes.
Nomura also warned that a stronger El Niño could create more problems later.
The report favors companies with strong brands and the ability to raise prices.
Nomura expects India’s consumer-staples sales and operating profit to grow 13.8% year-on-year in July-September.
Nestle India, Marico and Tata Consumer Products are among the companies expected to deliver positive surprises.
Higher input costs, especially for packaging, are expected to pressure gross margins across many staples companies.
Rural demand faces risks from below-average monsoon rainfall, drought conditions and a possible prolonged El Niño.
Nomura’s preferred stocks include Marico, Tata Consumer Products, ITC, Lenskart, Titan and Allied Blenders.
- Who
- Nomura and the Indian consumer-staples, discretionary and paints companies covered in its report.
- What
- Nomura forecast second-quarter sales, profit, margin and volume trends, identifying potential positive and negative surprises.
- Where
- India, including rural markets and states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka.
- When
- The July-September quarter, with results expected during the upcoming earnings season.
- Why
- Price increases are supporting reported sales growth, while rising input costs, monsoon weakness and other risks are affecting margins and demand.
Positive earnings outlook
Margin and demand risks
Sales and profit growth
Positive earnings outlook
Nomura expects consumer-staples sales and operating profit to grow 13.8% year-on-year, with Nestle India, Marico and Tata Consumer among potential positive surprises.
Margin and demand risks
The report expects higher input costs to pressure gross margins, while some companies may see weaker profit growth despite rising revenue.
Pricing power
Positive earnings outlook
Price increases should lift pricing growth in the quarter, and companies with strong brands and pricing power may protect performance.
Margin and demand risks
Most price increases remain materially below current input-cost inflation, and further hikes could weigh on demand.
Rural demand
Positive earnings outlook
Nomura describes overall demand as largely stable despite the full effect of earlier price increases.
Margin and demand risks
Rural demand could face pressure from monsoon rainfall 12% below average, drought conditions in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, and the risk of a prolonged El Niño.
Key facts
- Expected staples sales growth
- 13.8% year-on-year in the July-September quarter.
- Expected staples operating profit growth
- 13.8% year-on-year.
- Strongest expected staples revenue growth
- Nestle India at more than 20%.
- Expected Marico volume growth
- 8.5%, with sales growth forecast at 13% after price revisions.
- Expected Tata Consumer revenue growth
- 12.5%, with EBITDA margin improving to 14% from 13.5%.
- Monsoon rainfall
- 12% below the long-period average so far.
- Rural sowing
- Kharif sowing is down 1.4% from last year.
- Nomura’s top staples picks
- Marico, Tata Consumer Products and ITC.
Sources
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