1 week ago
Silver May Lag Gold Short Term, Then Outperform Over Years
A metals expert thinks gold may do better than silver for the next few quarters.
He says this is because current economic and geopolitical conditions favor gold more strongly.
Silver could become stronger later, especially when gold gets close to its highest price.
Over two or three years, silver might even perform better than gold.
In India, people are not buying much silver because dealers already have enough stock.
Gold prices are above $4,650 per ounce, and $5,000 is seen as an important next level.
Gold buying may increase during India’s festive and wedding season.
Because gold is expensive, shoppers are choosing lighter jewellery and lower-purity gold for everyday use.
Metals Focus expects silver to underperform gold over the next few quarters.
Silver could gain momentum and outperform gold over a two- to three-year period.
Gold is supported by the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment and remains above $4,650 an ounce.
Gold’s next major hurdle is seen at $5,000 an ounce, with India’s rupee depreciation and higher import duties potentially lifting local prices.
Indian silver demand remains weak, while jewellery buyers are shifting toward lighter-weight and lower-carat gold products.
- Who
- Harshal Barot, Senior Consultant for South Asia and the Middle East at Metals Focus, gave the outlook.
- What
- Silver is expected to lag gold in the near term but could outperform it over two to three years.
- Where
- The outlook covers global precious-metals markets, with specific comments on demand and prices in India.
- When
- Silver may underperform over the next few quarters, with potential outperformance over the following two to three years.
- Why
- Current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions favor gold, while silver could gain momentum after gold approaches its highs.
Key facts
- Near-term silver outlook
- Silver may underperform gold over the next few quarters.
- Longer-term silver outlook
- Silver could eventually outperform gold over a two- to three-year period.
- Gold price
- Gold prices are holding above $4,650 an ounce.
- Gold price hurdle
- $5,000 an ounce is viewed as the next hurdle for gold.
- Indian silver demand
- Physical and investment demand remains weak, partly because earlier imports left dealers and fabricators well stocked.
- Indian gold demand
- Demand is expected to recover as the festive and wedding season approaches.
- Jewellery trends
- Consumers are buying lighter jewellery and shifting toward 18-carat, 14-carat and diamond jewellery for daily wear.
Quotes
Harshal Barot
Senior Consultant for South Asia and the Middle East at Metals Focus
“Once probably gold achieves or nears the all-time highs, that's when I think we expect silver prices to start picking up and then maybe eventually outperform gold over a two- or three-year horizon.”
CNBC TV 18
“From a short-term perspective, I think next couple of quarters perspective, it is very possible that silver may underperform.”
CNBC TV 18
Sources
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