3 weeks ago
Average US Salary Budgets to Rise Just 0.1% in 2027
Companies in the United States are planning to give their workers slightly bigger raises next year, but just a tiny bit.
The average raise budget is expected to go from 3.4% to 3.5%, which means for every $100 someone earns, the extra money would rise from about $3.40 to $3.50.
Many companies give everyone the same size raise, which experts call 'peanut butter pay,' because the increase is spread out evenly like peanut butter on bread.
About one in four companies say they are losing workers because their raises aren't big enough.
Fewer people are quitting their jobs these days, a trend called 'The Great Stay.'
Some workers are so worried about finding a new job that they stay even when they're unhappy, which is called 'job hugging.'
But people who do change jobs often get much bigger raises, around $7 for every $100, compared with about $4.40 for people who stay.
Different industries get different amounts, with Business Services and Legal Services planning bigger increases than Technology, and New York leads the states at 3.6%.
Consultants at Deloitte and J.P. Morgan say the job market is improving but not booming, and one economist calls it 'moderating, not collapsing.'
Companies feel more hopeful than they did last year, but they are still being careful about how much extra money they give.
The average US salary increase budget is expected to rise from 3.4% in 2026 to 3.5% in 2027, according to Payscale's 2026-2027 Salary Budget Survey.
About 25% of US organizations say they are already losing employees in 2026 because their pay increases are not enough to retain them, while another 22% are unsure.
36% of US employers gave a standard across-the-board raise in 2026, and 32% plan the same approach in 2027, a practice known as 'peanut butter pay'.
Employer confidence is improving, with 30% expecting higher 2027 salary budgets, nearly double the 16% a year earlier, while only 8% expect decreases.
Fewer workers are changing jobs - turnover at public companies fell from 21.2% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2025 - but job switchers still earned a 7% average raise versus 4.4% for stayers, per ADP.
- Who
- US employers and workers, according to salary surveys and analysis from Payscale, ADP, Pave, Deloitte Insights, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and J.P. Morgan economist Joe Seydl.
- What
- Average US salary increase budgets are projected to rise only slightly, from 3.4% in 2026 to 3.5% in 2027, with most funds going to merit-based raises.
- Where
- United States, with notable differences across industries and states.
- When
- For 2027, based on the 2026-2027 Salary Budget Survey and 2026 labour market data.
- Why
- A labour market that is improving but not booming keeps employers cautious about pay, while switching jobs still offers significantly bigger financial rewards.
Key facts
- Average 2027 salary increase budget
- 3.5%
- Average 2026 salary increase budget
- 3.4%
- Organizations losing employees due to pay (2026)
- 25%
- Employers giving across-the-board raises in 2026
- 36%
- Employers expecting higher 2027 budgets
- 30% (up from 16% a year earlier)
- Employers expecting lower 2027 budgets
- 8% (down from 16% a year earlier)
- Job switchers vs stayers pay increase
- 7% vs 4.4% year over year (ADP)
- 2027 state expectations
- New York 3.6%; California and Florida 3.5%; Texas and Washington 3.4%
Quotes
Joe Seydl
Senior Markets Economist at J.P. Morgan
“The labour market is “moderating, not collapsing”, with hiring remaining stable and wage growth contained.”
financialexpress.com









