6 hrs ago
Gold prices may stay volatile as Fed, conflict shape outlook
Gold prices went up last week, but analysts expect them to move up and down next week.
Investors are watching decisions and signals from the United States Federal Reserve.
Higher interest rates and bond yields can make gold less attractive.
A stronger US dollar can also put pressure on gold prices.
However, worries about fighting in West Asia and energy supplies can make investors buy gold for safety.
Crude oil prices and new economic reports may also affect the market.
Analysts say gold has support near ₹1,50,000 on the Indian exchange.
They also see possible gains if gold rises above important resistance levels.
MCX gold futures for October delivery rose 1.04% last week to ₹1.54 lakh per 10 grams.
Analysts expect gold to remain range-bound and volatile as traders monitor the US dollar, bond yields, conflict developments and crude oil prices.
A hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and higher Treasury yields could pressure gold, while geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty may provide safe-haven support.
MCX gold faces immediate resistance at ₹1,54,000–₹1,54,700 and support at ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700.
Choice Broking described the coming-week trend as sideways to bullish, with a major upside resistance level at ₹1,63,100.
- Who
- Gold and silver traders, market analysts, the United States Federal Reserve and brokerage firm Choice Broking.
- What
- Gold prices are forecast to remain volatile and range-bound, with technical indicators pointing to a sideways-to-bullish outlook.
- Where
- The analysis covers India’s Multi Commodity Exchange and international Comex markets.
- When
- The outlook concerns the coming week; MCX gold rose during the previous week.
- Why
- Prices may be influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, the US dollar, Treasury yields, economic data, West Asia conflict developments and crude oil trends.
Downward pressures
Upside support
Monetary policy
Downward pressures
A hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar could weigh on non-yielding gold.
Upside support
Changes in monetary-policy expectations and inflation data could create demand for bullion if investors anticipate less tightening.
Geopolitical and energy risks
Downward pressures
If geopolitical concerns ease, the safe-haven support currently available to gold could diminish.
Upside support
West Asia conflict, a Saudi East-West pipeline outage and an attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz may increase safe-haven buying and concerns about energy disruptions.
Technical outlook
Downward pressures
A decisive break below ₹1,50,000 could deepen the current pullback, according to Ponmudi R.
Upside support
Gold remains above key moving averages, has recovered from the ₹1,50,000 zone and could strengthen if it breaks above ₹1,63,100.
Key facts
- MCX gold close
- ₹1,54,381 per 10 grams, according to Ponmudi R; the October contract rose about 1.04% last week.
- International gold close
- December Comex gold futures settled at $4,424.9 per ounce.
- Immediate resistance
- ₹1,54,000–₹1,54,700 on MCX gold.
- Next resistance
- ₹1,56,300–₹1,57,000, according to Ponmudi R.
- Immediate support
- ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700.
- Technical trend
- Choice Broking expects a sideways-to-bullish trend and identifies ₹1,63,100 as a major resistance level.
- Key upcoming indicators
- Manufacturing and services PMI readings, US new-home sales, durable-goods orders, consumer sentiment and unemployment claims.
Quotes
Ponmudi R
CEO of Enrich Money and market analyst
“On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at ₹1,54,000– ₹1,54,700, followed by the next resistance zone at ₹1,56,300– ₹1,57,000. On the downside, immediate support lies at ₹1,50,000– ₹1,50,700, followed by ₹1,47,300– ₹1,48,000.”
livemint.com
Choice Broking
Brokerage firm issuing a weekly commodity outlook
“The overall trend in Gold price is expected to be Sideways-to Bullish in the coming week”
livemint.com
Sources
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