2 weeks ago
Dragon and Elephant: Xi's China may still need a deal
China and India are two very big countries that live right next to each other.
They have been neighbours for thousands of years, and together they have more people than anywhere else.
Even though they are neighbours, China has lately acted like it does not respect India very much.
People who travelled to China wrote books about how some Chinese people said unkind things about Indian people and about India.
Chinese leaders have also been very tough and rude in their talks with other countries.
But China is having some problems now, like a slower economy, and it is busy competing with the United States.
Because of this, it might be a good time for China to make a deal with India.
The article says India should be brave but also smart, and try to reach an agreement with China while it still can.
It also says a real agreement needs both countries to give a little.
China and India (Bharat), neighbouring civilisations representing more than a third of humanity and about a fourth of the world economy, have grown more distant as China grew more powerful.
Accounts collected in Kanti Bajpai's 2021 book 'India Versus China' — from travellers including Vikram Seth, Anurag Viswanath and Reshma Patil — show Chinese attitudes toward India ranging from dismissiveness to racial prejudice.
Chun Han Wong's book on Xi Jinping describes China's 'wolf-warrior diplomacy', favouring 'bombastic browbeating over subtle persuasion' to establish hierarchy.
The article argues that Chinese economic and demographic headwinds and rivalry with the United States could push Xi's China toward negotiated settlements with India.
The author urges India to combine assertiveness with pragmatism, warning that the window for a deal with China may not remain open indefinitely.
- Who
- China, led by Xi Jinping, and India, called Bharat in the article, with analysis drawn from books by Kanti Bajpai, Vikram Seth, Anurag Viswanath, Reshma Patil and Chun Han Wong.
- What
- An opinion analysis arguing that despite China's disdain for India, Xi's China may now need a negotiated deal with New Delhi.
- Where
- China and India, including accounts from Xinjiang, Tibet, Gansu and Changzhou.
- When
- Published as Part 1 of a two-part series; references accounts from 1981, 2008-2011, a 2011 study and a 2021 book.
- Why
- Facing economic and demographic headwinds and strategic competition with the United States, China may see confronting India as a geostrategic overstretch.
China's position
India's opportunity
Should China make a deal with India?
China's position
China regards India as fundamentally inferior and is disinterested in it, so it may ask: why compromise at all?
India's opportunity
India is too large to become anybody's satellite and too strong to be bullied without cost, so the logic of accommodation may set in and a negotiated settlement may be reached.
Is China's diplomacy open to compromise?
China's position
Chinese 'wolf-warrior diplomacy' is designed to establish hierarchy — as one Asian diplomat put it, 'Win-win cooperation means China wins twice.'
India's opportunity
With its focus on the United States and its economic and demographic headwinds, Beijing may decide simultaneous confrontation on its south-western frontier is an overstretch and pursue a deal.
Key facts
- Source
- Firstpost opinion piece
- Series
- Part 1 of a two-part series
- Combined population
- More than a third of humanity
- Combined economy
- Roughly a fourth of the world economy
- Key reference
- 'India Versus China' by Kanti Bajpai (2021)
- Second reference
- 'Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China's Superpower Future' by Chun Han Wong
- China's diplomacy style
- 'Wolf-warrior diplomacy' favouring 'bombastic browbeating over subtle persuasion'
- China's 2049 goal
- Restoring China to the top of global power by the centenary of the People's Republic
Quotes
Unnamed Indian journalist in China
An Indian journalist asking a Chinese question about India’s location
“"You couldn’t tell where the border was. One day it was here, another day there. We retreated, they occupied, and vice versa. We just did what we were told."”
firstpost.com
“"Where is India? Is India near … Nepal?"”
firstpost.com
Chun Han Wong, author of Party of One
Political analyst writing about Xi Jinping’s diplomatic style
“"now favour bombastic browbeating over subtle persuasion, battling opponents big and small across negotiating tables, in newsprint, and on social media"”
firstpost.com
