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Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Polls Ahead of Midterms
Two polls suggest that James Talarico, a Democrat, may be ahead of Ken Paxton, a Republican, in Texas's 2026 Senate race.
One poll showed a very small lead, while another showed a bigger one.
The smaller lead is close enough that the poll's margin of error could affect what it means.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988.
Talarico had more favorable personal ratings in the Fox poll.
He also led among several groups, including moderates and younger voters.
Paxton had stronger support among some conservative and rural groups.
Many Texans said the cost of living mattered greatly to their vote.
The polls suggest a close and unsettled race, not that Texas has changed its political identity.
Two September polls showed Democrat James Talarico narrowly or clearly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas's 2026 Senate race.
A Fox News poll put Talarico ahead 51% to 49% among likely voters, within its three-point margin of error; a New York Times/Siena University poll showed a six-point lead.
Talarico had stronger personal ratings, while Paxton's ratings were net negative and Republican voters showed divisions over his candidacy.
Talarico led among moderates, Hispanic voters, voters under 35, and Black voters; Paxton's strongest groups included White evangelical Christians and rural voters.
The Fox poll found cost of living was a major concern, and Texans' approval of President Donald Trump was underwater.
- Who
- Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
- What
- September polls showed Talarico ahead of Paxton in the Texas US Senate race.
- Where
- Texas, United States.
- When
- The polls were conducted September 21–30; the race is for the 2026 midterms.
- Why
- The results were attributed to factors including candidate ratings, Republican divisions, voter-group support, and concerns about the cost of living.
Factors favoring Talarico
Factors favoring Paxton
Candidate ratings and party unity
Factors favoring Talarico
Talarico had net-positive personal ratings, and the poll found some non-MAGA Republicans and former John Cornyn primary supporters backing him.
Factors favoring Paxton
Paxton retained support among Republican and conservative voters, including some Trump approvers; the polls do not establish that Texas has turned Democratic.
Voter groups
Factors favoring Talarico
Talarico led among moderates, Hispanic voters, voters under 35, and Black voters in the Fox poll.
Factors favoring Paxton
Paxton's strongest groups included White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, and people aged 65 and older.
Cost of living
Factors favoring Talarico
Voters who said they were falling behind financially favored Talarico by 32 points.
Factors favoring Paxton
Voters who said they were getting ahead financially favored Paxton by 48 points.
Key facts
- Fox poll, likely voters
- Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%; margin of error: 3 percentage points.
- New York Times/Siena University poll
- Talarico led Paxton by six points.
- Fox poll dates
- September 24–28.
- New York Times/Siena University poll dates
- September 21–30.
- Talarico ratings
- 52% favorable and 44% unfavorable among likely voters.
- Paxton ratings
- 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable among likely voters.
- Trump approval in Fox poll
- 44% approved and 55% disapproved of his performance.
- Cost-of-living concern
- Seven in 10 Texans said it was extremely important to their Senate vote.
Sources
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