13 hrs ago
Nifty Expiry Day: Rebound Faces Key Resistance and Uncertainty
Indian shares went up for a second day on October 6.
The Nifty index gained 72 points, but experts said the market was still fragile after a long decline.
They are watching 22,400–22,450 as a level where buyers may try to stop a fall.
If Nifty rises above 22,621, it could move higher toward 22,750 and 23,000.
If it falls below 22,182, it could head lower.
Oil prices, overseas investors, and the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming decision may affect what happens next.
Some experts said the rebound could be difficult to sustain.
On October 6, Sensex rose over 200 points and Nifty gained 72 points, extending a two-session rebound.
The recovery followed an extended losing streak and was supported by easing oil concerns and improved sentiment.
Analysts identified 22,400–22,450 as immediate Nifty support and 22,700–22,750 as resistance.
A break below 22,182 could expose 22,000 and 21,743, while a move above 22,621 could open targets near 22,750 and 23,000.
Market direction remained uncertain amid foreign investor selling, crude prices, and the upcoming RBI policy decision.
- Who
- Indian benchmark indices and market participants; analysts quoted include V K Vijayakumar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Hitesh Tailor, and Shrikant Chouhan.
- What
- Sensex and Nifty rose as traders assessed whether a short-term rebound could continue.
- Where
- Indian equity markets.
- When
- Tuesday, October 6; the article refers to the upcoming RBI policy decision the following day.
- Why
- Short covering, easing concerns about oil prices, diplomatic developments, and domestic corporate and banking news supported the rebound, while foreign selling and uncertainty remained risks.
Cautious outlook
Potential for a continued rebound
Can the recovery last?
Cautious outlook
V K Vijayakumar said sustaining the recovery could be difficult, citing elevated US bond yields, foreign investor selling, and uncertainty around crude prices. He expected a 'sell on rally' market.
Potential for a continued rebound
Technical analysts described a possible pullback or continuation of the rebound if Nifty holds support and breaks above recent highs; improved global cues and buying at lower levels were cited as supportive.
Nifty's near-term direction
Cautious outlook
Analysts said the broader and short-term setup remained weak or tentative, with selling pressure at higher levels and potential downside if support breaks.
Potential for a continued rebound
A sustained move above 22,621 could open further gains toward 22,750 and 23,000, while a higher-high, higher-low pattern and reclaiming 23,000–23,100 would strengthen the case for reversal.
Key facts
- Sensex day's high
- 72,594.21, up more than 200 points or 0.3%.
- Nifty day's high
- 22,628.10, up 72 points or 0.3%.
- Immediate support
- 22,400–22,450.
- Major support
- 22,200–22,182.
- Immediate resistance
- 22,621; analysts also cited 22,700–22,750 as a major resistance zone.
- Downside levels
- 22,000 and 21,743 if key support breaks.
- Upside and reversal levels
- 22,800 is a possible next target; a meaningful reversal would require reclaiming 23,000–23,100.
- Key market factors
- Crude oil prices, foreign investor flows, and the RBI's policy stance and projections.
Quotes
Pabitro Mukherjee
Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking
“A sustained rally in the market will require sharp dip in crude prices. But there is no clarity on this front. This uncertainty will weigh on the central bank when the RBI Governor announces the MPC policy decision tomorrow.”
livemint.com
“Strength above last two sessions' almost identical high of 22,621 will open further pullback towards 22,750 and 23,000 levels in the coming sessions. Failure to move above last two sessions' high will signal consolidation.”
livemint.com
Hitesh Tailor
Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking
“The near-term tone is cautiously constructive, supported by a firm opening indication and improved global cues. However, the broader setup remains tentative after the recent decline, with momentum yet to strengthen decisively.”
livemint.com
Sources
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