1 hr ago
Nifty 50 Monthly Expiry Faces Crude-Driven Pressure, Key Levels
India's main stock index, the Nifty 50, was falling on its monthly expiry day.
Monthly expiry is when some futures and options contracts finish, which can make trading more active and volatile.
Rising crude oil prices are worrying investors because India imports a large amount of oil.
Higher oil costs can increase inflation and put pressure on economic growth and company profits.
The Nifty had already fallen below the important 23,000 level.
Analysts said the index could find support near 22,600 to 22,700.
If it falls below those levels, it could decline further.
However, because some indicators show the market is oversold, a short-term bounce is possible.
Analysts generally said the larger trend will remain weak unless the Nifty moves back above roughly 23,000 to 23,150.
The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex extended losses on 29 September amid rising crude prices and broader global concerns.
At 9:15 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.21% at 22,732.45, while the Sensex fell 0.19% to 72,633.68.
Analysts identified immediate Nifty support around 22,600–22,700 and resistance between 22,870 and 23,100.
A decisive break below 22,700 or 22,600 could lead to declines toward 22,400 or 21,800, according to separate analyst views.
Oversold momentum indicators could support a short-term rebound, but analysts said the broader trend remains weak unless the index reclaims key resistance levels.
- Who
- Indian equity investors and traders, along with analysts from Choice Broking Private Limited, Bajaj Broking and Geojit Investments Limited.
- What
- The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex extended losses as traders assessed support and resistance levels on monthly expiry day.
- Where
- Indian stock markets.
- When
- Tuesday, 29 September; the quoted market levels were recorded at 9:15 a.m. IST.
- Why
- Rising crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows, high United States Treasury yields and concerns about inflation, fiscal pressure and corporate earnings weighed on sentiment.
Short-Term Rebound Case
Continued Weakness Case
Near-term direction
Short-Term Rebound Case
Oversold momentum indicators could allow the Nifty 50 to rebound toward 23,020.
Continued Weakness Case
The index has formed a bearish structure and extended its decline, so the broader trend remains weak.
Important levels
Short-Term Rebound Case
A sustained move above 23,000–23,100, or above 23,150 in Anand James's assessment, could signal improving momentum and potentially open the way toward 23,400.
Continued Weakness Case
Failure to reclaim 23,000–23,150 would preserve the bearish setup; breaks below 22,700 or 22,600 could intensify selling.
Trading backdrop
Short-Term Rebound Case
Attractive valuations in large-cap growth stocks may provide buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Continued Weakness Case
Elevated crude prices, foreign investor outflows and high United States Treasury yields continue to create a risk-off environment.
Key facts
- Nifty 50 at 9:15 a.m. IST
- 22,732.45, down 0.21%
- BSE Sensex at 9:15 a.m. IST
- 72,633.68, down 0.19%
- Brent crude
- Up 1.5% to around $107 a barrel
- Immediate support
- 22,650–22,700, according to Hitesh Tailor; other cited support levels included 22,640 and 22,500
- Key resistance
- 22,870–23,000, with broader reversal levels at 23,000–23,150
- Downside scenarios
- A break below 22,700 could target 22,400, while a break below 22,600 could target 21,800
- Expiry-day effect
- Position settlement, rollover and adjustments can increase trading volume and intraday volatility
Quotes
Hitesh Tailor
Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking Private Limited
“The short-term setup remains bearish following the breakdown below 23,000, with derivatives positioning also reflecting increased caution. Immediate support is placed at 22,650–22,700, while resistance is seen at 22,950–23,000”
livemint.com
“With momentum indicators entering the oversold zone, a near-term pullback towards 23020 cannot be ruled out. However, the broader trend remains weak unless 23150 is reclaimed”
livemint.com
Sources
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