5 days ago
RBI's Net Short Dollar Position Hits Record $200 Billion
The Reserve Bank of India keeps records of future dollar transactions.
In August, its net short dollar position reached a record $200.06 billion.
This was higher than the $136.77 billion recorded in July.
A large part of the increase came from FCNR(B) flows.
The RBI also used transactions called sell/buy swaps.
Most of the larger short positions will mature after one year.
The RBI's long dollar positions also increased, which reduced its net short position for contracts due within one year.
Experts think the RBI may avoid using too much direct market intervention because many of these dollars were borrowed and must eventually be returned.
The Reserve Bank of India's net short dollar position reached a record $200.06 billion at August-end, up from $136.77 billion in July.
Short positions maturing after one year nearly doubled to $176.57 billion from $91.54 billion.
Positions maturing within one year rose to $55.15 billion, while long dollar positions increased to $31.66 billion.
Market participants attributed the increase mainly to FCNR(B) flows and the RBI's sell/buy swaps.
Experts expect the RBI to limit spot intervention because much of the FCNR(B) funding is borrowed and must be repaid within three to five years.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India, with observations from market participants and a private-bank treasury head.
- What
- The RBI's outstanding net short dollar position in its forward book rose to a record $200.06 billion.
- Where
- In the RBI's forward-book and foreign-exchange operations.
- When
- At the end of August, with the data released on Monday; the borrowed dollars are expected to be repaid over the next three to five years.
- Why
- The increase was linked mainly to FCNR(B) flows and sell/buy swaps, while the RBI manages the repayment obligations associated with borrowed dollars.
Key facts
- August net short position
- $200.06 billion
- July net short position
- $136.77 billion
- Short positions maturing within one year
- $55.15 billion at August-end, up from $47.66 billion in July
- Short positions maturing after one year
- $176.57 billion at August-end, up from $91.54 billion in July
- August long dollar positions
- $31.66 billion, compared with $2.43 billion in July
- Net short position under one year after adjustment
- Approximately $23.5 billion, down from $45.2 billion in July
- Main factors cited
- FCNR(B) flows and RBI sell/buy swaps
Quotes
The treasury head at a private bank
Treasury head at an unnamed private bank
“The short positions have increased on the back of FCNR(B) flows. The RBI has also let some positions to mature because looking at the data, if we include the amount of inflows, the short position in more than one year should have been around $218 billion”
rediff.com
“The RBI has been conducting sell/buy swaps too, and they have been conducting them in September as well, so technically the total short positions should have reduced.”
rediff.com
Sources
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