4 hrs ago
Surging US Bond Yields Create Mixed Outlook for Indian Banks
US government bond yields have gone up a lot.
This can affect Indian banks in several ways.
Banks may earn more when they raise loan rates.
But they may also have to pay more to attract deposits.
Bonds already held by banks can lose value when market yields rise.
That can reduce income from their treasury operations.
Some banks have strong deposit bases or loans whose rates can adjust quickly.
Other banks may be more exposed to bond losses or weaker lending margins.
Experts say banks may initially fare better than NBFCs, which rely more on wholesale funding.
Investors are being told to compare banks individually rather than assume higher rates help the entire sector.
The US 10-year government bond yield has risen above 5.1%, while India’s 10-year yield is around 7.1%.
Higher yields could reduce the market value of banks’ government-bond holdings and weaken treasury income.
Banks may face firmer deposit rates as lending grows faster than the collection of low-cost savings.
Lenders with floating-rate assets and strong deposit franchises may be better positioned than NBFCs.
Analysts expect the effects to differ by loan mix, deposit profile, treasury exposure and lending margins.
- Who
- Indian banks, NBFCs, investors and analysts including Deven R Choksey, Sunny Agrawal and Motilal Oswal.
- What
- Rising US bond yields are creating mixed effects for Indian banks through lending margins, deposit costs, treasury income and valuations.
- Where
- The developments concern US and Indian bond markets and their effect on Indian financial institutions.
- When
- The impact is being assessed after the US 10-year yield moved above 5.1%; analysts expect the next two quarters to be challenging.
- Why
- Higher US yields can pressure the rupee, narrow the extra return on Indian bonds, increase funding costs and reduce the value of banks’ bond holdings.
Potential Benefits
Potential Risks
Lending margins
Potential Benefits
Banks whose loan rates reprice faster than their deposit rates could benefit from higher interest rates.
Potential Risks
Banks with already-thinner lending margins may not gain automatically, particularly if deposit costs rise quickly.
Banks versus NBFCs
Potential Benefits
Banks may initially be better positioned because floating-rate assets and stronger deposit franchises can provide protection.
Potential Risks
NBFCs may be more vulnerable because wholesale funding and refinancing become more expensive in a high-rate environment.
Treasury performance
Potential Benefits
Banks with limited treasury exposure and stronger lending performance may offset some bond-related weakness.
Potential Risks
Rising yields reduce the value of existing government bonds and may weaken treasury income, with larger bond portfolios facing greater pressure.
Key facts
- US 10-year yield
- Above 5.1%, a level last seen nearly two decades ago.
- India 10-year yield
- Around 7.1%.
- SBI treasury income
- Down about one-third year over year in April-June.
- Potential bank pressure
- Higher yields can cause mark-to-market losses on treasury portfolios and raise deposit costs.
- Potential bank support
- Floating-rate assets and strong deposit franchises can help banks absorb higher funding costs.
- NBFC exposure
- NBFCs may face relatively greater pressure because of wholesale funding and refinancing needs.
- Investor guidance
- Analysts advise against treating higher interest rates as automatically positive or selling good banks in panic.
Quotes
Deven R Choksey
Founder and Managing Director of DRChoksey FinServ
“When that happens, foreign money becomes choosy, the rupee comes under pressure, and Indian banks feel it in three places: the value of the government bonds they hold, the cost of gathering deposits, and the price the market is willing to pay for bank shares.”
financialexpress.com
“Higher rates help a bank that can raise loan rates faster than deposit rates. They hurt a bank that is sitting on a large bond book and fighting for deposits.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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