10 months ago
India's Q2 GDP Growth Predicted Between 7% and 8%
Experts have different opinions about how fast India's economy grew in the second quarter of this year.
Some say it could be around 7.5% to 8%, while others think it might be less than 7%.
Despite these differences, most agree that India's economic outlook is strong and stable.
Economists predict Q2 GDP growth between sub-7% and 8%
SBI Research estimates real GDP growth at 7.5-8.0% for Q2 FY26
ICRA projects real GDP growth to ease to 7% in Q2 FY26, with industry outpacing services
DBS Group Research projects real GDP growth rate for 2025-26 at 7.2%, Q2 to be sub-7%
RBI projects Q2 GDP growth at 7%, annual GDP growth at 6.8%
- Who
- Economists, SBI Research, ICRA, DBS Group Research, RBI
- What
- Forecasted Q2 GDP growth rates
- Where
- India
- When
- For the second quarter of the current fiscal year (2025-26)
- Why
- To assess the country's economic performance and outlook
Optimistic View
Cautious View
Growth Rate
Optimistic View
Above 7.5% (SBI Research)
Cautious View
Below 7% (DBS Group Research, ICRA)
Growth Drivers
Optimistic View
Strong consumer spending, investment activities (SBI Research)
Cautious View
Industry outpacing services, inventory stocking (ICRA)
Key facts
- Q1 GDP Growth
- 7.8%
- RBI's Q2 GDP Growth Projection
- 7%
- RBI's Annual GDP Growth Projection
- 6.8%
- SBI Research's FY26 GDP Growth Estimate
- 7.3%-7.5%
- ICRA's Q2 GDP Growth Projection
- 7%
- DBS Group Research's 2025-26 GDP Growth Projection
- 7.2%
Timeline
ADB slashes India's growth forecast over US tariff fears.
Then, economists clash on Q2 GDP growth.
Disagreement fueled by global trade uncertainties.
Estimates vary, from sub-7% to 8%.
Yet, consensus: India's economy remains robust.
Quotes
KR Shanmugam
Former director, Madras School of Economics, and economic consultant, Tamil Nadu government
“India is experiencing one of its sharpest disinflations in recent years.”
financialexpress.com
“Food, especially vegetables, is the biggest driver behind this sudden softness.”
financialexpress.com
An anonymous source from the Monetary Policy Committee
A member of the committee responsible for setting monetary policy in the country.
“Inflation has ceased to be a concern, with the third quarter figures likely to undershoot the Monetary Policy Committee’s projection of 1.8 per cent made in October.”
thehindubusinessline.com
The Reserve Bank of India
The central bank of the country, responsible for implementing monetary policy.
“The real interest rate is above the conventionally accepted figure of 1.5 per cent, providing a window for a rate cut at least till the first quarter of FY27.”
thehindubusinessline.com
Sources
Q2FY26 GDP: Economy seen to have grown at 7% 7.5%
Q2 GDP LIKELY at 7.5%: SBI Research
Editorial. Easing phase
Forecasts of Q2 GDP growth vary from sub-7% to 8%
Explainer: Inflation is down, are households better off?
India Inc’s rural engine sputters in Q2 on farm-income pressure, credit slump; BFSI adds to the drag
RBI Likely To Lower Repo Rate To 5.25% And Shift To Data-Dependent Approach As Inflation Stabilises, Says Morgan Stanley
RBI likely to cut repo rate by 0.25 pc to 5.25 pc in Dec: Report
