2 days ago
MoSPI Defends India’s 7.8% GDP Growth Estimate
India reported that its economy grew by 7.8% in the first quarter.
Some people questioned whether this number was too high.
Saurabh Garg, a senior statistics official, said other numbers support the result.
He pointed to growth in factories, services, electricity, cement, steel and spending by people.
India also changed the starting year used to calculate GDP.
Garg said old figures should not be compared directly with figures calculated using the new method.
He said the new method uses information such as GST and other digital records.
He also said official statistics do not face a credibility crisis, although people may still feel uncertain because of global events.
MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said the 7.8% Q1 GDP growth figure is supported by manufacturing, services, electricity, cement, steel and consumption data.
Garg defended changing India’s GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, saying newer GST and digital data improve measurement.
He said comparisons using the old ₹86 lakh crore figure and new ₹88 lakh crore estimate are misleading because revised historical data must be used.
Garg explained that real and nominal growth can diverge because GDP calculations use more than 300 price-related indicators across sectors.
He rejected claims of a statistical credibility crisis and said future quarterly revisions would normally be limited to 10–30 basis points.
- Who
- Saurabh Garg, Secretary of India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, defended the estimate.
- What
- He defended India’s reported 7.8% Q1 GDP growth and explained the effects of GDP rebasing, price adjustments and data revisions.
- Where
- India.
- When
- The discussion concerned the latest Q1 GDP data and revisions released in February 2026 and afterward.
- Why
- Garg said the growth figure is supported by real-economy indicators and that critics were comparing figures from different GDP series.
Critics’ concerns
MoSPI’s response
Reliability of the 7.8% figure
Critics’ concerns
Critics questioned whether India’s reported growth rate overstated the economy’s performance.
MoSPI’s response
Garg said the figure is corroborated by manufacturing and services PMI readings, sectoral growth, electricity and industrial output, and private consumption data.
Revision of earlier GDP figures
Critics’ concerns
The criticism cited a reduction in the previous year’s Q1 GDP figure from about ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore, arguing this made the latest growth look stronger.
MoSPI’s response
Garg said the ₹80 lakh crore figure had been released in February 2026, before the ₹88 lakh crore estimate existed, and that comparisons should use the revised series consistently.
Statistical credibility
Critics’ concerns
Broader allegations suggested that methodological changes and data revisions created a credibility problem for India’s official statistics.
MoSPI’s response
Garg rejected that claim, saying the new methodology followed consultations with experts and international institutions and used expanded digital data sources.
Key facts
- Reported Q1 growth
- 7.8%
- New GDP base year
- 2022-23, replacing 2011-12
- Revised Q1 GDP figures
- ₹74 lakh crore in Q1 FY25, ₹80 lakh crore in Q1 FY26 and ₹88 lakh crore in Q1 FY27
- Selected supporting indicators
- Electricity grew 9%, while cement and steel grew 8%; private consumption expenditure was nearly 8%
- Price indicators used
- More than 300 values across agriculture, industry and services
- Expected future revisions
- Normally around 10, 20 or 30 basis points up or down
- Statistical field force
- About 10,000 people collecting household and enterprise data
Quotes
Saurabh Garg
Secretary of India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
“I would say that the 7.8% that has come out as a growth figure for Q1 is only corroborated by a number of real economy figures.”
businesstoday.in
“So, whenever if a comparison has to be done, you need to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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