6 days ago
Gold Offers Steadier Volatility Shield Than Silver, Data Shows
Gold, silver and shares do not always rise or fall together.
Over 26 financial years, gold usually did well when shares had a bad year.
Gold lost money in only four years, while the Nifty 50 TRI lost money in eight.
In FY09, shares fell sharply but gold gained 26.8%.
Silver changed direction more often and lost money in 11 years.
However, silver also produced some of the biggest gains, including 127.5% in FY26.
Both metals had correlations close to zero with the Nifty 50 TRI.
This means gold appeared to offer the steadier protection, while silver offered greater risk and potentially greater returns.
Gold posted negative returns in only four of 26 financial years from FY01 to FY26.
Gold gained 26.8% in FY09 when the Nifty 50 TRI fell 35.4%.
Silver was more volatile, recording negative returns in 11 of the 26 financial years.
Silver delivered the period’s strongest gain, rising 127.5% in FY26, compared with gold’s 63.3%.
Gold’s correlation with the Nifty 50 TRI was -0.04, versus 0.08 for silver, indicating slightly greater diversification potential for gold.
- Who
- Gold, silver and the Nifty 50 TRI, as analyzed in an HDFC Mutual Fund NFO presentation.
- What
- A comparison of the returns, volatility and equity correlation of gold and silver over 26 financial years.
- Where
- The analysis uses gold and silver prices measured in Indian rupees and the Nifty 50 TRI.
- When
- From FY01 to FY26; the reported correlation period was 4 January 2000 to 31 July 2026.
- Why
- To assess which precious metal may provide better diversification and protection during equity-market volatility.
Gold’s steadier defensive profile
Silver’s higher-return potential
Protection during equity declines
Gold’s steadier defensive profile
Gold generally performed better than equities in years when the Nifty 50 TRI delivered negative returns; it gained 26.8% in FY09 while the benchmark fell 35.4%.
Silver’s higher-return potential
Silver did not show a consistent pattern during years when the Nifty 50 TRI declined, sometimes rising and sometimes falling.
Risk and reward
Gold’s steadier defensive profile
Gold had negative returns in only four of the 26 years and recorded a lower equity correlation of -0.04.
Silver’s higher-return potential
Silver was more volatile, with negative returns in 11 years, but it also produced the period’s largest gain: 127.5% in FY26.
Key facts
- Analysis period
- FY01 to FY26, covering 26 financial years
- Gold negative-return years
- Four: FY01, FY14, FY15 and FY17
- Silver negative-return years
- Eleven of the 26 financial years
- Gold’s worst return
- -10.8% in FY14
- Silver’s strongest return
- 127.5% in FY26
- Gold-Nifty 50 TRI correlation
- -0.04
- Silver-Nifty 50 TRI correlation
- 0.08
Sources
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