3 weeks ago
RBI Justified in Holding Rates as Inflation Not Yet Broad-Based
The Reserve Bank of India is like the grown-up in charge of keeping the country's money safe and prices fair.
A group called the Monetary Policy Committee recently decided not to change how much it costs to borrow money.
Prices of things like food and fuel have gone up a little, but not everywhere yet, so the bank thinks it can wait.
The bank expects prices to go up a bit more and then calm down.
It now thinks inflation will be a little lower than it first expected.
It also thinks the country's economy will grow a little faster than first thought.
More than 36 billion dollars came into India through a special savings scheme for people living abroad.
That helps keep India's money, the rupee, strong.
So borrowing money stays cheaper for now, which helps people and businesses.
The bank will watch carefully and may change its mind later if prices rise too much.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate and stance unchanged, with a distinctly dovish tone that markets did not anticipate.
The RBI cut its FY27 inflation forecast by 10 basis points to 5% and raised its GDP growth forecast by 10 bps to 6.7%.
Headline inflation averaged 3.9% in the June quarter, 30 bps below the RBI's forecast, and is projected to peak at 5.9% in the third quarter.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation pressure is driven largely by food, fuel, and supply-side factors, while core inflation remains benign and the 4% target is a medium-term goal.
The FCNR(B) scheme has attracted around $36 billion, easing pressure on the rupee, and economists now expect a rate hike in December or early next year.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
- What
- Left the policy rate and stance unchanged, while cutting the FY27 inflation forecast to 5% and raising the GDP growth forecast to 6.7%.
- Where
- India, at the Reserve Bank of India.
- When
- At the latest MPC meeting (exact date not stated); the benchmark bond yield eased to 6.77% on the Wednesday of the report.
- Why
- Because inflation is driven largely by supply-side factors and is not yet broad-based, while the RBI wants to support decelerating GDP growth; bringing inflation to 4% is a medium-term goal.
Hold rates to protect growth
Hike rates to tame inflation
Inflation outlook
Hold rates to protect growth
Inflation is driven by food, fuel, and supply-side factors, is not broad-based, and is projected to taper off after peaking at 5.9%.
Hike rates to tame inflation
Headline inflation is expected to stay above 5% from September through June 2027, and second-order effects of higher input costs may soon show.
Rate hike timing
Hold rates to protect growth
The RBI should keep a future hike as an option but wait, since growth is decelerating and could use policy support.
Hike rates to tame inflation
Economists expect a rate increase in December or early next year, with consensus for cumulative tightening of about 50 bps.
Growth vs. price stability
Hold rates to protect growth
Raising rates now would disrupt growth momentum in a year when El Niño could hurt agricultural output.
Hike rates to tame inflation
Companies have already raised prices to pass on higher costs, and a complete pass-through has yet to happen.
Key facts
- Policy decision
- Rates and stance left unchanged (neutral stance)
- FY27 inflation forecast
- 5% (cut by 10 bps)
- FY27 GDP growth forecast
- 6.7% (raised by 10 bps)
- June quarter headline inflation
- 3.9% (30 bps below forecast)
- Projected inflation peak
- 5.9% in the third quarter
- Core inflation FY27 forecast
- Lowered by 40 bps
- FCNR(B) scheme inflows
- Around $36 billion
- Benchmark bond yield
- 6.77%









