1 week ago
Ukraine Faces Major Obstacles to Holding Elections During War
Ukraine has not held elections since 2019 because the country is under martial law during its war with Russia.
Martial law currently prevents elections for security reasons.
President Zelenskiy says voting could happen if allies help make it safe.
Fighting and missile attacks could endanger voters and polling places.
Millions of Ukrainians live abroad or have moved to other parts of the country.
Soldiers and people living in Russian-occupied areas would also have trouble voting.
Ukraine would need new rules and an updated voter list before an election.
Analysts say it could take about six months just to create the legal framework.
Most Ukrainians surveyed oppose holding elections while the war continues.
Polls suggest Zelenskiy would be a leading candidate if a vote were held.
Ukraine’s martial law, imposed after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, currently bans elections.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says elections could proceed if the United States and European allies ensure voting security.
Millions of displaced Ukrainians, citizens abroad, soldiers and residents of occupied territories would face difficulties voting.
Analysts say Ukraine would need new election legislation, voter-register updates and safeguards against Russian manipulation.
Polls cited in the report show Zelenskiy remains a leading candidate, with Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Kyrylo Budanov and Mykhailo Fedorov also potential contenders.
- Who
- Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian voters, potential challengers including Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Kyrylo Budanov and Mykhailo Fedorov, and Russia.
- What
- Ukraine is considering the practical, legal and security obstacles to holding national elections during the war.
- Where
- Across Ukraine, including front-line areas, Russian-occupied territories, internally displaced communities and polling stations in Europe.
- When
- Ukraine last held elections in 2019 and has been under martial law since February 2022; analysts estimate about six months would be needed to create an election framework.
- Why
- Elections are being demanded by some figures, including Mykhailo Fedorov, while Zelenskiy says they require security guarantees; martial law currently bans them and the war creates major logistical risks.
Arguments for holding elections
Arguments against wartime elections
Political legitimacy
Arguments for holding elections
The United States has argued that Ukraine should hold elections, and Russia says President Zelenskiy is illegitimate because his term ended in May 2024.
Arguments against wartime elections
Ukraine remains under martial law, which bans elections, and Ukrainian officials and analysts cite security, legal and logistical obstacles.
Security conditions
Arguments for holding elections
Zelenskiy says he is prepared to hold elections if the United States and European allies can ensure the vote’s security.
Arguments against wartime elections
Analysts say at least an air ceasefire would be needed to begin considering a vote, while missile and drone attacks continue across the country.
Public support
Arguments for holding elections
Supporters of an election argue that a vote could address questions about Ukraine’s leadership and mandate.
Arguments against wartime elections
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Ukrainians oppose holding elections during the war, and registering displaced people and organizing voting for soldiers could divert time and funds from defence.
Key facts
- Martial law
- Ukraine has been under martial law since February 2022, and martial law bans elections for security reasons.
- Front line
- Fighting extends along more than 1,200 kilometers in eastern, southern and northern Ukraine.
- Ukrainians under EU protection
- More than 4.4 million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the European Union at the end of June.
- Internally displaced people
- Just under 4 million Ukrainians are internally displaced within the country, according to the U.N. migration agency.
- Military personnel
- About 1 million people serve in Ukraine’s defence forces.
- Occupied territory
- Russia controls about 19% of Ukrainian territory, where about 4.5 million adults were estimated to remain as of 2024.
- Estimated legal preparation
- Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko estimated that creating the necessary legislative framework could take about six months.
Sources
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