2 weeks ago
Indian IT stocks recover losses on valuations, anti-AI bets
There are companies in India that help other businesses with their computers and software.
Earlier this year, people who buy shares in these companies were sad because the value went down a lot.
By the start of July, one big group of these companies, called Nifty IT, had lost 32% of its value.
But since then, most of the lost value has come back, and now the group is only down about 17%.
One reason is that the shares became cheap, like toys on sale.
Some people also think these companies are a safe bet against artificial intelligence, or AI for short.
Big investors from other countries started buying these shares again in July.
The market for AI companies in South Korea crashed, so some investors looked at Indian tech companies as a safer choice.
Most companies also made good profits and won big new jobs even though the future is unclear.
Experts say the recovery might not last long, because AI can still change how these companies make money.
For now, the shares are doing much better than they were a few weeks ago.
The Nifty IT index has recovered to around 17% down for 2026, after being down 32% on July 1 and hitting its lows in early July.
TCS is now down 26.5% in 2026 compared with 38% at the start of July, while Tech Mahindra is up 2% and Coforge is up nearly 9%.
Nifty IT trades at roughly 19-20 times forward earnings versus a 5-year average of 25-27 times, prompting domestic institutions such as mutual funds to top up IT stocks.
Foreign institutional investors bought $352 million of Indian IT shares in July, turning buyers after five months of selling during which they dumped $3.5 billion.
The crash of the AI-heavy South Korean Kospi index, down around 23% from its 2026 peak, has been cited as boosting the appeal of Indian IT stocks as an anti-AI bet.
Experts view the rally as a likely short-term trade, with AI-driven revenue deflation, subdued US client spending, and uncertain earnings visibility still clouding the long-term outlook.
- Who
- Indian IT services companies such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and Coforge, along with domestic institutions and foreign institutional investors.
- What
- Indian IT stocks recovered a substantial portion of their 2026 losses after hitting lows around the start of July, driven by cheap valuations, resilient Q1 earnings, and an anti-AI investment bet.
- Where
- India's stock market (Nifty IT index), with related moves in the US and South Korea's markets.
- When
- During the first half of 2026 and the recovery after early July, following April-June quarter earnings.
- Why
- Attractive valuations (19-20 times forward earnings versus a 25-27 times 5-year average), better-than-expected profits and deal wins, and FIIs returning to India and buying IT as a hedge against AI bets.
Bullish on Indian IT stocks
Cautious on Indian IT stocks
Valuation opportunity
Bullish on Indian IT stocks
Cheap valuations (19-20 times forward earnings versus the long-term average of 25-27 times) give investors a good risk-reward entry point, and mutual funds are adding positions believing concerns are priced in.
Cautious on Indian IT stocks
The correction reflects real headwinds including AI-related revenue deflation, subdued US client spending, and uncertain earnings visibility, so low valuations alone do not guarantee recovery.
Anti-AI trade
Bullish on Indian IT stocks
Indian IT stocks are a strong bet against AI, with FIIs buying Indian equities and IT shares after the AI-heavy South Korean market crashed, and global peers like Cognizant, Accenture, and Capgemini also rallying.
Cautious on Indian IT stocks
It is too early to call it a definitive trend change; AI productivity is still nascent, AI could surge again, and the rally may be only a short-term trade.
Key facts
- Benchmark
- Nifty IT index
- Nifty IT on July 1, 2026
- Down 32% year-to-date
- Nifty IT now
- Down around 17% for 2026
- Nifty IT valuation
- 19-20 times forward earnings vs 25-27 times 5-year average
- TCS 2026 performance
- Down 26.5% (was down 38% at start of July)
- Tech Mahindra 2026 performance
- Up 2%, best-performing large-cap IT stock
- Coforge 2026 performance
- Up nearly 9% (was down 35% at lowest)
- FII buying of Indian IT shares in July
- $352 million, after $788 million sold in the prior month
- Kospi index decline from 2026 peak
- Around 23%
Quotes
Sumit Pokharna
Analyst at Kotak Securities tracking the IT sector
“The market has already discounted the news (of uncertain outlook projected by companies in Q1). There is no major negative news in sight currently, like a new model from Anthropic, which will incrementally impact IT services.”
indianexpress.com
Unnamed fund manager
Fund manager tracking the sector at a domestic AMC
“We have possibly seen FIIs also buy IT stocks as a strong bet against AI as they returned to India.”
indianexpress.com








