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GMR Airports Growth Bets Meet Near-Term Passenger Traffic Risks
GMR Airports runs several airports and also earns money from shops, cargo, parking and nearby property.
Three brokerages believe these businesses could help the company grow.
Emkay and Macquarie are positive about the company’s expanding airport network and improving profits.
GMR is also developing commercial land near airports in Delhi and Hyderabad.
However, passenger numbers have recently been weaker, especially for domestic flights.
Hyderabad and Goa saw notable traffic declines in August.
JM Financial expects this weakness to continue until November.
It expects passenger growth to improve from December because comparisons with the previous year should become easier.
The brokerages nevertheless kept positive ratings on the company.
Emkay initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a Rs 120 target price, citing non-aeronautical businesses, airport land and portfolio expansion.
Macquarie rated GMR Airports Outperform with a Rs 120 target and expects revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit to rise through FY29E.
JM Financial retained its Buy rating and Rs 115 target despite weaker recent passenger traffic, expecting recovery from December.
GMR handled 9.44 million passengers excluding Cebu in August, with organic traffic down 2.6% year-on-year as domestic travel weakened.
Emkay expects airport land monetisation and stronger cash generation to support revenue growth and reduce net debt-to-EBITDA from 6.7 times to 4.9 times by FY29E.
- Who
- GMR Airports, as assessed by Emkay Research, Macquarie and JM Financial.
- What
- Brokerages issued positive or constructive views on GMR Airports’ growth prospects while flagging near-term passenger-traffic weakness.
- Where
- GMR Airports’ portfolio includes Indian assets such as Delhi, Hyderabad, Goa, Nagpur and Bhogapuram, as well as Cebu.
- When
- The traffic data cited is for August; brokerages expect weakness through November and improvement from December, with financial estimates extending through FY29E.
- Why
- Growth is expected from airport operations, non-aeronautical activities, airport land development, new airports and improving profitability.
Long-Term Growth Case
Near-Term Traffic Risks
Business expansion
Long-Term Growth Case
Emkay and Macquarie expect growth from airport operations, commercial activities, new airports and businesses such as duty-free, cargo, parking and retail.
Near-Term Traffic Risks
JM Financial cautions that weaker passenger traffic could affect airport performance, particularly if declines at Hyderabad persist.
Passenger trends
Long-Term Growth Case
Brokerages see longer-term support from India’s low air-travel penetration, expanding connectivity and a relatively strong international passenger mix.
Near-Term Traffic Risks
JM Financial reported a 2.6% year-on-year decline in organic passenger traffic in August, led by domestic weakness, and expects softness through November.
Financial outlook
Long-Term Growth Case
Macquarie expects revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit to increase through FY29E, while Emkay forecasts stronger cash generation and lower leverage.
Near-Term Traffic Risks
The outlook remains exposed to passenger traffic, airport tariffs, regulatory decisions, concession terms, capital expenditure and operating performance, according to the article’s disclaimer.
Key facts
- Emkay view
- Buy rating; Rs 120 target price, implying about 25% upside.
- Macquarie view
- Outperform rating; Rs 120 12-month target price and 29% estimated total shareholder return.
- JM Financial view
- Buy rating; Rs 115 target price, implying 23.7% upside.
- August traffic
- GMR handled 9.44 million passengers excluding Cebu; organic passenger traffic declined 2.6% year-on-year.
- Airport land
- GMR has around 3,003 acres of commercial land across five Indian airport assets, with 552 acres already monetised.
- Macquarie FY29E estimates
- Revenue of Rs 22,600 crore, EBITDA of Rs 9,110 crore and adjusted profit of Rs 2,550 crore.
- Leverage outlook
- Emkay expects net debt-to-EBITDA to decline from 6.7 times in FY26 to 4.9 times by FY29E.
Quotes
Emkay Research
Brokerage that initiated coverage on GMR Airports with a Buy rating.
“As the only listed Indian airport operator, we like GMR for its dual-track business model with improving profitability, simplified structure, and high-quality passenger mix.”
financialexpress.com
“Passenger traffic would remain soft till Nov’26 and improve in Dec’26 owing to favourable base effect stemming from the Indigo airline crisis in late-CY25.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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