1 hr ago
Motilal Oswal Sees 31% Upside in Niva Bupa Shares
Niva Bupa is a company that sells health insurance.
India’s insurance regulator has proposed new rules about how insurance is sold and distributed.
Niva Bupa said the rules could help it over time but may slow growth at first.
The company also expects fewer sales in credit-linked insurance.
Motilal Oswal agrees that the long-term effect could be positive.
However, it said changes to products and distribution could create short-term pressure.
Motilal Oswal kept its Buy recommendation on the stock.
It believes the shares could reach ₹100, compared with ₹77.38 at Friday’s close.
Niva Bupa shares rose 1.63% to ₹77.38 on Friday after recovering from the previous session’s decline.
Motilal Oswal maintained a Buy rating and a one-year target price of ₹100 per share.
The brokerage said IRDAI’s proposed distribution reforms could be positive for Niva Bupa over the medium term.
The reassessment of products and distribution structures could create near-term growth pressure, according to Motilal Oswal.
Niva Bupa expects lower commissions to keep prices flat longer and volumes in credit-linked business to decline.
- Who
- Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited and brokerage Motilal Oswal; the proposed rules were issued by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India.
- What
- Motilal Oswal maintained a Buy rating and ₹100 target price for Niva Bupa, citing potential benefits from proposed insurance distribution reforms.
- Where
- The stock traded on the BSE.
- When
- The shares rose on Friday; Niva Bupa discussed the draft norms during a conference call on Thursday.
- Why
- The brokerage viewed the proposed distribution reforms as positive over the medium term, despite possible near-term pressure from lower commissions and changes to products and distribution.
Positive medium-term outlook
Near-term growth concerns
Effect of distribution reforms
Positive medium-term outlook
Motilal Oswal and Niva Bupa consider the IRDAI draft norms a net positive over the medium term.
Near-term growth concerns
The reassessment of product structures and distribution architecture could put pressure on growth in the near term.
Commission changes
Positive medium-term outlook
The company is already complying with the 20% first-year and 10% renewal commission caps, limiting the adjustment needed on this issue.
Near-term growth concerns
Lower commissions could keep prices flat for longer and may reduce volumes in credit-linked business.
Key facts
- Stock
- Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited
- Brokerage recommendation
- Buy
- Target price
- ₹100 per share
- Reported upside
- 31%
- Friday closing price
- ₹77.38 per share
- Friday share move
- Up 1.63%
- Market capitalisation
- ₹14,312.55 crore
- Proposed regulator
- Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India
Quotes
Niva Bupa management
Management of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company
“Management treats this as a pipeline impact to be mitigated, not fully quantified yet.”
livemint.com
“We maintain our estimates and retain BUY rating with a one-year TP of INR100.”
livemint.com
Sources
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